US really on Ukraine's side? Trump's summer plans coming into focus
Photo: Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump (Ukrainian Presidential Office)
The United States does not consider itself merely a neutral mediator in Russia’s war against Ukraine. This was stated directly in Congress by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
RBC-Ukraine spoke with diplomat and Director of the Center for Defense Strategies Oleksandr Khara about whether Washington is truly playing on Kyiv’s side, and whether the visit of the US and Ukrainian presidents to the NATO summit could bring surprises
Key points:
- US position: The Trump administration cannot currently be described as a reliable ally of Ukraine, despite some positive statements.
- NATO summit: No breakthrough decisions or open conflicts should be expected from a possible July meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and the US in Türkiye.
- Pressure on Kyiv: In the summer, the US may exert pressure on Kyiv to reach an agreement with Russia for the sake of Republican political gains, but Ukraine is expected to resist these attempts.
- China’s role: US hopes that China will help bring the war to an end are unrealistic, as Beijing benefits from the current situation and Russia’s dependence on it.
Is the US really on Ukraine’s side?
Despite statements from some US officials, Washington has not taken a clearly pro-Ukraine position in the conflict with Russia, Khara believes.
According to him, Rubio, who is the most experienced member of the current administration, is trying to balance loyalty to US President Donald Trump with pursuing a reasonable policy, which is why he makes certain positive statements about Ukraine.
"Are they on our side? It seems absolutely obvious to me that they are not," Khara stressed.
He noted that during his two terms, Trump halted arms deliveries to Ukraine three times. In particular, at the beginning of the new term, supplies were effectively stopped, along with the transfer of intelligence data and weapons purchased by European partners. At the same time, a decrease in sanctions pressure on Russia and Belarus is currently being observed.
"Unfortunately, in my view, the US is not our ally. It is not ready to provide serious support to Ukraine. And given its mistake with Iran, the use of weapons and air defense missiles, it will now try to strengthen itself primarily, then its allies in the Middle East, and only after that, whatever is left will go to Ukraine," the diplomat said.
What to expect from the NATO summit with Zelenskyy and Trump
Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend the NATO summit in Türkiye in July. Khara believes that no major statements or open confrontation should be expected during their possible meeting, but neither should a breakthrough be anticipated.
According to Khara, Trump views the Ukraine issue as a problem that prevents him from restoring relations with Russia for personal, family, or strategic gain. The diplomat explained that Trump is not capable of thinking strategically and is likely to repeat claims that there would have been no war during his presidency.
Risk of pressure on Ukraine in the summer
Earlier, sources in the Ukrainian government told RBC-Ukraine that the US may be preparing a new pressure campaign on Ukraine aimed at reaching an agreement with Russia.
Among the reasons is the Trump administration’s need for a quick victory to boost the Republican Party's approval ratings ahead of the midterm elections to the US Congress. However, according to Khara, although US pressure is possible, American voters do not pay much attention to foreign policy, as they are more concerned with their country’s economy.
"They will apply pressure, but once again, we will push back against it," Khara noted.
He added that even in the event of some concessions from Ukraine, Russia itself would not agree to peace without achieving a significant result and changing the security situation across Europe.
"So there will be some rhetoric, there will be some pressure. We have gone through this more than once with Trump. We just need to be ready for it, and for Zelenskyy and our diplomats to try not to damage relations more than necessary," the diplomat explained.
China’s role in ending the war in Ukraine
During a visit to China, Trump personally asked Xi Jinping to help end Russia’s war against Ukraine. Trump hopes the Chinese leader will bring Russian president Vladimir Putin back to the negotiating table, as talks have reached an impasse.
In Khara’s view, expectations of China’s help in resolving the war are unrealistic. Beijing benefits from the current situation, as it diverts Western resources away from the Indo-Pacific region and makes Russia fully dependent on China.
"China will talk about supporting territorial integrity, but in reality, it will support Russia. China cannot allow Russia to lose. That’s why I don’t believe in such a scenario," he concluded.
Read also:
