Peace talks update: Trump hesitates, Europe tightens sanctions

Key questions:

• Why was Europe shocked by the outcome of Trump’s call with Putin?

• Where could the next round of talks between Ukraine and Russia take place?

• Europe’s sanctions move ahead without waiting for the US. What is included in the new package?

Trump’s talks with Putin, Ukraine, and Europe

The main event of the week happened at its very beginning – on Monday. The US president, Donald Trump, made a series of phone calls. The White House leader first briefly spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, then held a lengthy conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, and afterwards called Zelenskyy again along with five other European leaders.

The talks took place after the Ukraine-Russia meeting in Istanbul, where Russian representatives behaved openly rudely and clearly showed they had no real intention of ending the war. Therefore, both in Ukraine and Europe, there were hopes that after speaking with Putin, Trump would finally understand the situation and decide on tough anti-Russian sanctions. Especially since, before the conversation with the Kremlin dictator, the American president was sending exactly such signals to the Europeans.

The disappointment in Kyiv and other European capitals grew even stronger after Trump and Putin finally spoke. According to American media reports, the US president told his European counterparts that Putin was "open to negotiations." Moreover, according to the Financial Times, Trump clearly stated that the US would not participate in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, leaving them to negotiate the ceasefire bilaterally on their own.

According to Axios sources, some leaders present during the call appeared "surprised" or "shocked." The publication reported that Zelenskyy told Trump that Putin had previously agreed to negotiations, and that a recent round of talks had just taken place in Istanbul. However, the White House chief did not respond. After that, EU leaders and the Ukrainian president reminded Trump that it was his idea to initiate peace talks with an immediate 30-day ceasefire. At the same time, Bloomberg sources added that Trump "made it clear he believed in Russia’s victory, repeating several Kremlin narratives." However, by Thursday, The Wall Street Journal clarified that it was Putin who was "confident in Russia’s victory," not Trump, and that the American leader was merely relaying his counterpart’s words.

On Tuesday, the US president told reporters that he would not increase sanctions against Russia "because there is a chance" for progress, but he avoided answering questions about the conversation with Putin regarding the 30-day ceasefire. He also reiterated that he was ready to "walk away" from the Ukraine-Russia negotiations if no "progress" was made.

Meanwhile, after the talk with Trump, the Russian dictator stated he was ready to cooperate with Ukraine on drafting a memorandum that would lay the groundwork for future talks, potentially including a temporary ceasefire. However, a few hours later, Putin’s spokesman Peskov emphasized that there was "no discussion and could be no discussion" about any timeline for preparing such a memorandum.

Later, Russia recalled its old propaganda slogan that a "new government" in Ukraine was necessary to sign the memorandum. "What matters is whose signature (on the documents) it is, because the current leader (Zelenskyy) has long lost even internal legitimacy, let alone external. Accordingly, there may be problems with the validity of any agreement signed by such a person," said Maxim Musikhin, director of the legal department at the Russian foreign ministry.

Preparation for a new round of negotiations

On May 20, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio effectively acknowledged that the negotiation process is at an impasse.

"The fundamental challenge is this: Russia wants something they do not currently have and are not entitled to, and Ukraine wants something they cannot regain militarily. That's been the crux of the challenge," Rubio said during a speech before the US Senate committee.

At the same time, Ukraine is ready for further direct talks with Russia and is preparing a military framework for the next technical meeting with the Russian delegation. According to President Zelenskyy, efforts are ongoing to hold these talks as soon as possible.

"It is obvious to the world that Russia is responsible for the continuation of this war. Ukraine is ready to take swift steps — real ceasefire and establishment of a new security architecture. We are doing everything on our side," the president said, adding that reciprocal readiness from Russia is necessary but currently lacking.

The new Pope Leo XIV also expressed his readiness to host the next meeting. According to Reuters, the Holy See is open to possibly organizing negotiations but is cautious "so as not to be considered biased toward one of the belligerents."

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted that the Pope’s offer to mediate is the last earthly instance. In his view, all that remains is to hope that the Vatican can at least bring the conflicting parties together for constructive dialogue. However, Merz assessed that there are currently no signs that the war will end soon. According to The Wall Street Journal, the meeting could take place at the Vatican in mid-June.

Switzerland also confirmed its readiness to host the next round of talks. This was announced by Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.

Sanctions from Europe

Without waiting for the United States, on May 20 the European Union introduced its own, 17th package of sanctions against Russia. This includes restrictions on 189 vessels of Russia’s shadow fleet registered in third countries, which are responsible for transporting Russian oil.

In addition, the EU imposed targeted sanctions on the ecosystem of the shadow fleet. These measures cover shipping companies involved in transporting crude oil and petroleum products by sea. The companies are based in the United Arab Emirates, Türkiye, and Hong Kong.

One major insurer of the Russian oil transportation sector has also been added to the sanctions list. Moreover, the sanctions target the large Russian oil company Surgutneftegas, as well as more than 45 Russian companies and individuals supplying drones, weapons, ammunition, military equipment, critical components, and logistical support to the Russian military.

Work is already underway on the new, 18th sanctions package. According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the most sensitive points for the Kremlin are oil, energy trade infrastructure, banks, and financial schemes. However, sources among European diplomats speaking to RBC-Ukraine say there is an understanding that without the US, sanctions will not be effective or force Moscow to change its policy.

On May 21, German government representative Stefan Cornelius said that despite everything, the EU and Germany are negotiating with all "players" in the US regarding new sanctions on Russia over its aggression against Ukraine.

Against this backdrop, US lawmakers have intensified their efforts on sanctions. The US Senate is prepared to approve a bill imposing strict sanctions on Russia if Putin does not show a willingness for peace within a few days. The bill, proposed by Senators Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) and Lindsey Graham (Republican), has the support of 81 out of 100 senators. However, for the bill to become law, it still needs approval from the House of Representatives and the signature of the US president. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that without a green light from the White House, the bill will not move forward.

Preparation for prisoner exchanges

One of the few aspects of negotiations showing some progress remains the prisoner exchange in a "1000 for 1000" format, agreed during the Istanbul meeting on May 16.

The Security Service of Ukraine is compiling lists of Russian military personnel eligible for transfer to Russia and, together with the Ministry of Health and other relevant Ukrainian agencies, is preparing to receive Ukrainian soldiers currently held captive by the enemy. This includes preparing infrastructure, locations, and medical personnel.

President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is discussing the exchange of military prisoners, but has also signaled the opposite side about exchanging political prisoners and journalists.

Meanwhile, Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that implementing the "1000 for 1000" exchange will take time, but "all parties are maximally interested" in completing it as soon as possible. The first stage of the exchange took place on May 23, when 270 military personnel and 120 civilians were released from captivity.

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Despite pressure from Europe and parts of his own administration, the US president appears to continue believing Russian narratives about "negotiations to end the war." Moreover, it seems Putin managed to convince Trump that Russia is open to negotiations, thereby delaying the introduction of sanctions.

In this situation, one way forward could be narrowing the maneuvering room for Trump — both inside the US through Congress and through continuing an information campaign exposing Putin’s true intentions in the war. Attempts to "reach" Trump will certainly continue, but Ukrainian and European sources speaking to RBC-Ukraine express doubts about their effectiveness.

Sources: statements from Ukrainian, American, and European politicians, and publications from Reuters, CNN, Axios, and the Financial Times.