'Quite a clash': Key updates on the Ukrainian advance to the South and operations on the Dnipro left bank
Ukrainian forces achieve gains in a counteroffensive in the south (Photo: Getty Images)
To solidify their presence on the left bank of the Kherson region, Ukrainian military forces are making significant strides in the south. While the adversary resists, there is a parallel threat looming over the grouping near Kupiansk. An analysis from RBC-Ukraine provides insight into the frontline situation and the evolving counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Reserves deployed near Kupiansk
After the failure of the Russian advance on Lyman (Donetsk region) and Borova (Kharkiv region), the intensity of fighting escalated along the Kupiansk. Last week, Kupiansk emerged as the focal point of the eastern front's heat.
According to the Commander of the Army of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskii, the Russian's objective is to breach the defense lines and reach the regional center. The battles in this area are characterized by high dynamics, with individual positions changing hands multiple times throughout the day.
On the DeepState map service, minimal changes are noted in this sector. Russian forces are reported to be advancing closer to the village of Synkivka. Project analysts confirm that the enemy came dangerously close to the settlement, only to be repelled during a counterattack.
Simultaneously, Russian troops are advancing from the Novoselivka area (Luhansk region) with the aim of splitting the Ukrainian formation through an eastern flank strike, encircling the defending forces. However, all attempts have been successfully repulsed.
Russian troops attempting to approach Kupiansk (photo: deepstatemap.live)
Due to the renewed threats near Kupiansk, the city's military administration has declared a mandatory evacuation. This decision will impact 37 settlements situated closest to the frontline.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are advancing toward the villages of Orlianka and Mykolaivka to the east of Kupiansk. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the capture of positions near Olshan to the northeast of the district center.
So-called "war correspondents" claimed to have captured positions along a stretch from Synkivka to Petropavlivka, asserting that their forces were approximately 7 kilometers from Kupiansk. Some reports even suggested they might have reached the outskirts of the city, though ISW has yet to find visual confirmation.
Last week, the Spokesperson of the Operational Command East of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Serhii Cherevatyi, noted that despite the adversary's numerical advantage, the situation remains under control. He further specified that reinforcements were moved to the area the day before to bolster defense and thwart enemy advances.
Military expert Vladyslav Seleznov pointed out that currently, Russian forces are exerting pressure on our positions from the north along the Oskil River and from the southeastern direction to break through Kupiansk's defenses.
"The situation is indeed complex because they enjoy a significant advantage in personnel, armored vehicles, and weaponry. When it comes to artillery, the ratio is at least 1:10. Our ability to hold the line is owed to the bravery and heroism of our soldiers. We've now deployed additional reserves, so the Russians shouldn't anticipate any territorial gains," he emphasized in a commentary for RBC-Ukraine.
The advance near Bakhmut became a trench warfare
The main battles in the Bakhmut area are ongoing near the settlements of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdiumivka. This is the southern flank, and the adversary has been attempting to regain lost positions throughout the week. However, according to Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar, our forces have managed to liberate an additional 3 square kilometers of territory.
Cherevatyi also reported an order from Syrskii to reinforce the Bakhmut grouping with additional reserves. As a result, the Russians are unlikely to make any significant progress in the near future, even in terms of tactical successes.
Another 3 square kilometers of territory were liberated near Bakhmut (photo: deepstatemap.live)
Currently, routine combat operations are underway near Bakhmut. Ukrainian sources are sharing videos of artillery strikes, including those targeting armored vehicles and enemy tanks. In recent days, another "no-analog" Ka-52 helicopter was shot down here.
Vladyslav Seleznov reminds us that a few weeks ago, by concentrating significant forces on the northern flank, the Russians managed to halt the advance around the village of Berkhivka. Subsequently, while there was an opportunity, our military managed to push forward in the southern direction, but the enemy also brought in reinforcements there.
"Therefore, at the moment, positional battles akin to trench warfare are taking place near Bakhmut. To speak about a significant leap forward in the near future is probably not warranted. Just as it is unlikely that the enemy will be able to fundamentally change the situation in this sector," emphasized the expert.
The advance near Bakhmut could regain momentum with sufficient artillery and ammunition. Oleksandr Musiienko, the head of the Сenter of Military Law Researches, also speaks about Russia's serious defensive potential.
"And to defeat the Russians, additional forces and resources are needed. But since, from the perspective of the counteroffensive, the southern direction is currently a priority and it's challenging to advance uniformly in all directions, the tasks regarding maintaining the front and slow progress with available forces are being addressed near Bakhmut. In such conditions, it's hardly worth expecting a rapid breakthrough," he added in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
Overall, according to the Ministry of Defense's data, the number of shelling and Russian attacks has decreased on the eastern front. However, this doesn't mean that the enemy has abandoned its plans. Ukrainian strikes on the Kupiansk and Lyman directions have resulted in heavy losses, causing the Russians to regroup, as explained by Hanna Maliar.
Battle for Urozhaine
In the aftermath of liberating the village of Staromaiorske in the Berdyansk direction, our forces have now focused their efforts on Urozhaine. This settlement rests on the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River, once home to roughly a thousand residents before the conflict.
Russian Telegram channels last week reported the loss of Urozhaine. Allegedly, infantry retreated from the forested area as early as the 10th, while armored units hesitated to take firing positions due to the effective actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Ukrainian troops reclaim the village of Urozhaine (photo: deepstatemap.live)
Over the weekend, videos emerged online showcasing artillery strikes on retreating Russian soldiers from Urozhaine. Judging from the footage, it appears that the enemy was retreating across open fields and roads without armored vehicles. Strikes, seemingly, were executed with cluster munitions.
According to data from the DeepState service, the frontline has shifted southward toward the village of Zavitne Bazhannia. This place is roughly 3 kilometers away from the strategic stronghold of Staromlynivka.
Citing military analysts, The New York Times reports on tactically significant progress. Their analysis suggests that the Ukrainian side employed seasoned naval infantry to breach the Mokri Yaly river valley, and the situation near Urozhaine is forcing the Russians to divert forces from other directions. If the Defense Forces manage to advance, they will position themselves more than 80 kilometers from the shores of the Azov Sea.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense limits its statements to declaring "certain success" in this sector.
"This week saw ongoing battles in the settlement of Urozhaine, with certain success," stated Deputy Minister Hanna Maliar.
According to her, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to solidify positions to the south and southeast of Staromaiorske. Preceding this, a representative from the General Staff, Andrii Kovalov, reported advances toward Urozhaine.
In the opinion of Oleksandr Musiienko, it is crucial to stabilize the situation in this region and clear the settlement. It was from this area that the Russians previously targeted our positions, preventing a complete takeover of Staromaiorske.
"Liberating Urozhaine is tactically crucial to ensure further advancement to the south toward Zavitne Bazhannia and Staromlynivka. This will prevent the enemy from maintaining a foothold on the left bank of the Mokri Yaly River, a constant threat to us," he highlighted in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Vladyslav Seleznov expresses doubt that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to push toward the Azov Sea coastline.
"After Urozhaine, there are still several lines of defense to overcome. We should not talk about a radical change in the situation. When they mention five mines per square meter of explosive clearance, one can only imagine the time required for demining," the expert stated.
According to him, a key task at present is refining rear logistics and enemy depots to weaken the potential of the Russian army. Notably, a strike was recently launched against a military base in the resort town of Yuryivka near Mariupol. Going by Mayor Vadym Boichenko's statement, over a dozen occupants were eliminated.
Successes in Robotyne
The advance in the village of Robotyne continues along the Melitopol sector. Its liberation will pave the way toward the occupied town of Tokmak – a crucial logistical hub for the occupiers in the Zaporizhzhia region.
It's worth noting that in June, Ukrainian forces in this area likely suffered losses of several Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. This compelled a change in tactics, with defensive forces now advancing from the flanks.
Ukrainian forces attempt to encircle Robotyne from the flanks (photo: deepstatemap.live)
According to the analytical project DeepState, the intensity of the fighting here can be compared to the situation near Bakhmut earlier this spring. Ukrainian troops likely have already approached the outskirts of Robotyne. At least, a photo of a soldier against a corresponding road sign has surfaced on social media.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) anticipate a push toward the outskirts of the village. However, according to General Staff data, the Russians are launching counterattacks and have been unable to firmly establish themselves in positions.
Meanwhile, according to BILD observer Julian Röpcke, at some point, the Ukrainian Armed Forces seemingly controlled the northern, eastern, and central parts of Robotyne. He also notes that it's quite possible that the village will be cleared in the coming days and brought under complete control.
Vladyslav Seleznov cautiously assesses the capabilities of the Ukrainian army in this sector.
"Our forces have only approached the first line of defense in the Robotyne area if we rely on the General Staff's statements. Insights can be anything, but it's not enough to just occupy positions; they need to be secured to speak of achievements," he said.
In his opinion, the tactic of flank attacks has already proven to be the most effective.
"But considering the set tasks, I'm not confident that we'll see significant breakthroughs on the map in the coming days. Currently, the enemy near Robotyne is deploying operational reserves. I think there will be quite a clash. The Russians want to hold their ground and will deploy all available resources for that purpose," the expert added.
Is there a new foothold on the left bank of Kherson?
In an ongoing development, Ukrainian military forces are intensifying their presence on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. Recent reports have emerged regarding a daring operation near the village of Kozachi Laheri, situated approximately 20 kilometers northeast of the occupied territories of Oleshky and the Antonivskyi Bridge area. According to sources, Ukrainian forces may have established a foothold here as early as June.
Julian Röpcke of BILD shared exclusive details of the operation. Ukrainian special forces executed an impressive maneuver on August 8th, launching a barrage of rockets at enemy positions on the left bank and simultaneously launching an assault to capture Russian fortifications.
After the successful takeover, an urgent call for assistance was allegedly made by Russian commander Yury Tomov. Leading a group in a BTR, Tomov ventured onto the frontline only to fall into an ambush. The ensuing skirmish lasted mere minutes, with Tomov's men either killed or wounded and the major himself taken captive. Shortly thereafter, a video emerged of Tomov marking Russian positions on a map.
Post-operation, Russian "war correspondents" suggested that Ukrainian forces were maintaining control over parts of Kozachi Laheri. Many propagandists also speculated about the expansion of this foothold. However, Ukrainian authorities have yet to officially confirm this information.
Ukraine has yet to confirm the foothold in Kozachi Laheri (photo: deepstatemap.live)
"Once again, an expert frenzy has ignited concerning the left bank of the Kherson region. Despite the lack of apparent reasons for the frenzy, I've just returned from those locations. To establish a foothold there without facing annihilation and to ensure a secure position, territory clearance, and enemy repulsion are imperative. With a paramount focus on safeguarding civilian lives, our operations remain diligently counter-battery," said Hanna Maliar, Deputy Minister of Defense.
Maliar acknowledged that "certain units have accomplished specific tasks," though it's unclear whether this pertains to the incident involving Major Tomov. Before this, the Main Intelligence Directorate reported a ground operation that destroyed an RF Special Forces rocket unit.
The statements about Ukrainian actions on the left bank have irked official spokespersons. Natalia Humeniuk, Head of the United Coordinating Press Center of Security and Defense Forces of the South of Ukraine, claims that such reports are detrimental to Ukrainian troops and expose civilians to harm. She advocates maintaining an information blackout. Nonetheless, activities in the area have apparently concluded, and counter-battery engagements are ongoing.
"Though speaking of a new foothold is premature, the possibility is high. Our troops are doing everything to find vulnerabilities, strike, and establish a substantial foothold for further advancement. We already have one near the dachas and Antonivskyi Bridge area, and now we observe a successful raid near Kozachi Laheri. I believe our efforts will ultimately bear fruit," asserts Oleksandr Musiienko.
Vladyslav Seleznov recalls earlier indications of operations near Antonivskyi Bridge a few kilometers from Oleshky. Yet, these actions were not discussed in the context of specific sectors or parts of the frontline.
"While I am confident that once the identities of those fighting there are revealed, this will be significant news for Ukraine. For now, let's await official updates from the General Staff; I assure you, you'll be surprised," the expert intrigues.
