Russia may be preparing new offensive in northern Ukraine, sources say
Sources outline Putin's possible plans for the coming months (photo: Getty Images)
The Kremlin continues its offensive in the Donetsk region, but among the scenarios being considered for the coming months is the opening of a new offensive direction in northern Ukraine, either from Belarusian territory or from Russia's Bryansk region, according to informed RBC-Ukraine sources.
Moscow's primary objective remains the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka urban area (a cluster of major cities in Ukraine's Donetsk region), the capture of which would allow Vladimir Putin to claim full control over the Donetsk region.
Russian military commanders have repeatedly pushed back their timelines.
“Russia's objectives for the summer remain unchanged — the complete capture of the Donetsk region, including Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. Initially, Putin was promised this by the end of the summer, but the latest promises appear to have shifted again, now to the end of the year. At the same time, the enemy will continue applying pressure this summer in the Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions," one of the media outlet's sources said.
The pace of Russia's advance has been slowed by rising losses.
According to Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Russian forces were losing 67 soldiers for every square kilometer of territory captured in October. By April, that figure had risen to 179.
Around 60–62% of those losses are considered irrecoverable.
The recruitment of contract soldiers is currently barely enough to offset Russia's ongoing losses.
As a result, the Kremlin may be preparing a new wave of mobilization involving roughly 100,000 additional personnel, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said following meetings with military and intelligence officials.
Signs of such preparations are already being reported inside Russia. Mobilization notices are increasingly being sent to citizens, requiring them to report to military enlistment offices if a new mobilization wave is announced, without receiving an additional summons.
According to the sources, Putin may use a new mobilization not to reinforce existing forces in Donbas, but for a separate offensive operation in northern Ukraine.
Three possible scenarios are being considered:
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Joint operations by Russian and Belarusian forces launched from Belarus;
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An offensive conducted exclusively by Russian troops from Belarusian territory;
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An independent advance by Russian forces into the Chernihiv region (northern Ukraine) from Russian territory.
At present, this scenario is not considered inevitable. However, according to the sources' assessment, the Russian military would need at least three months to prepare for such an offensive.
In May, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia was considering attack scenarios against Ukraine from Belarusian territory and from Russia's Bryansk region, prompting Kyiv to strengthen fortifications and border defenses in the north.
About 1,900 troops — four battalions that are regularly rotated — are currently stationed on the Belarusian side of the border near Ukraine.
No force large enough for a full-scale offensive has been observed either in Belarus or in Russia's Bryansk region.
According to expert estimates, Moscow would need hundreds of thousands of soldiers to carry out a genuine large-scale offensive in northern Ukraine.
