Ukraine watches closely for possible Russian offensive in north
Photo: Attention is once again turning northward (Getty Images)
Amid reports of a possible threat from the north, Ukraine’s military and political leadership is monitoring several signs that may indicate Russia is preparing for potential offensive operations in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction, according to an RBC-Ukraine article.
According to the agency, activity in this direction and the threat level currently remain low. At the same time, attention is being paid to several factors.
Sign 1
The first of these is the number of troops near Ukraine’s northern borders. On the Belarusian side, as before, four battalions of the Belarusian army, about 1,900 soldiers, are deployed and are constantly rotated. No sufficient number of Russian forces for an offensive has been detected so far, either from the Belarusian side or from the Bryansk region of Russia.
At the same time, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously stated that the Kremlin was preparing new mobilization measures to recruit an additional 100,000 troops.
According to RBC-Ukraine, this refers to a possible new wave of mobilization similar to the one in the fall of 2022. It could add to the 409,000 troops that Russia plans to recruit this year under contract.
As the agency notes, the Kremlin could use these 100,000 troops for an operation on Ukraine’s northern borders if a corresponding decision is made. In late 2022 and early 2023, Vladimir Putin mobilized about 300,000 Russians.
Sign 2
The second factor cited is the development of infrastructure in southern Belarus—the expansion of logistics routes and the establishment of training grounds and bases that could be used by Russian troops within the so-called Union State.
Sign 3
The third sign, which has not yet been observed, is an intensification of reconnaissance and sabotage-reconnaissance activities by Belarus and Russia in the direction of a potential strike.
Ukraine's northern border threat
Tensions along the northern borders have been escalating since mid-April, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Russia’s attempts to drag Belarus into the war, the construction of roads leading to our border, and the deployment of artillery positions there.
Subsequently, the head of state reported that the Kremlin was preparing five scenarios of action. In response to the threats, large-scale counterintelligence measures have begun in five regions (Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Volyn, and Rivne) to protect against sabotage groups, involving enhanced checks of people, vehicles, and documents. At the same time, the border area is being mined, and fortifications are being built.
Meanwhile, Belarus and Russia conducted joint nuclear exercises. Yesterday, Alexander Lukashenko stated that he did not plan to go to war unless there was aggression against his country, and proposed a meeting with Zelenskyy. The Office of the President of Ukraine emphasized that after 2022, Lukashenko's words carry no weight, so Kyiv evaluates only actions.
Currently, Russia does not have a strike force in Belarus. There are only about 1,500 Russian troops there, who support aviation and electronic warfare operations, while all of Russia’s main forces are tied up in eastern and southern Ukraine.
According to experts, Moscow would need hundreds of thousands of soldiers for a real offensive in the north.
