New threat to Ukraine from Belarus? ISW explains Russian nuclear drills

What is known about the drills

On May 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko took part in the second stage of joint nuclear force exercises.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russian troops delivered nuclear munitions to Belarus. Belarusian units practiced:

• Receiving munitions;

• Loading launch systems;

• Moving Iskander-M systems.

Russia also carried out a series of launches involving different types of missiles, including:

• The Yars intercontinental ballistic missile;

• The Zircon missile;

• The Kinzhal missile;

• Missiles from the Iskander-M system.

Units of Russia's strategic missile forces, navy, and aviation took part in the exercises.

What ISW says

ISW analysts said the exercises demonstrate Russia's growing control over Belarus.

The report recalled that Belarus previously officially held the status of a non-nuclear state. However, in 2022, the country amended its Constitution and gave up that status.

ISW believes this gives Russia more opportunities to use Belarusian territory for its military operations.

The report also states that Russia and Belarus plan to hold new Union Shield exercises in 2027. According to Putin, they will take place as part of the two countries' joint military training.

Meanwhile, reports have outlined scenarios for a possible new Russian attack on Ukraine, including potential threat directions and Belarus' role in the Kremlin's military plans.

In addition, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the Belarusian leadership. The head of state spoke about Minsk's actions and its cooperation with Russia.

Separately, analysts have outlined five possible Kremlin scenarios, focusing on risks for Ukraine and Russia's potential next steps.