Garry Kasparov, Kremlin critic: NATO won't fight if Putin invades Latvia or Lithuania
Photo: Garry Kasparov (Getty Images)
In the event of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, the North Atlantic Alliance would not dare to mount a full-scale response. One of the leaders of the Russian opposition, Garry Kasparov, said this in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
Read also: 'Putin is war': Russian opposition figure Kasparov explains why war in Ukraine will continue
NATO membership – a fiction?
According to Kasparov, formal NATO membership does not guarantee real protection. He suggested imagining a scenario in which a 200,000-strong Russian grouping approaches Latvia’s border.
“They say: Latvia is a member of NATO. That's just a piece of paper. It's absolutely nothing,” the opposition figure stressed.
Kasparov recalled his speech at the International Security Forum in Halifax, where he asked Europeans a direct question: whether they have orders to open fire if Russian troops cross the border.
“There is no answer. Because everyone knows the answer. No one will shoot,” he said.
According to him, NATO membership has turned out to be a fiction.
“Because you can sign any document. Nice, shiny documents. But there must be people who are ready to follow the instructions in that document,” he added.
What NATO’s Article 5 depends on
The effectiveness of NATO’s Article 5 depends on the political will of the US leadership, Kasparov believes.
He says that NATO’s Article 5 is effective only when strong political leaders are in the White House, such as the 40th US President Ronald Reagan or the 39th President Jimmy Carter.
“But it doesn't work when Trump (US President Donald Trump – ed.) or Biden (former US President Joe Biden – ed.) is there. That’s all,” the interviewee said.
He added that Finland is less vulnerable due to its well-prepared army. By contrast, the Baltic states, in his assessment, remain “really defenseless.”
Possible scenarios of a Russian invasion of Europe
Kasparov also outlined a possible scenario that he considers the most likely: not a large-scale invasion, but a limited operation.
It could involve small units crossing the border, for example, several hundred special forces troops, seizing a small part of territory, probably in the area of Daugavpils in Latvia or Narva in Estonia.
“And then they check: is there a fifth article or not? Unfortunately, we know the answer,” he concluded.
Russia’s threat to Europe
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, fears in Europe of a possible expansion of Russian aggression have greatly increased.
According to Reuters, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are preparing detailed emergency response scenarios, including in the event of a possible Russian invasion or a sharp escalation on their borders.
Analysts from ISW believe that the Kremlin has already begun the first phase of preparations for a potential conflict with NATO. In their assessment, Russia may resort to provocations, including false flag operations.
Germany recently held exercises simulating a Russian invasion of Lithuania. Their results were disappointing – Moscow would be capable of achieving its objectives in a matter of days.
Is Putin ready for war with the West, and how will NATO respond? Read in the RBC-Ukraine article.
