Baltic states prepare evacuation plans in case of Russian attack

Preparing for possible Russian aggression

The three Baltic states, concerned about the rise in Russian military spending since 2022, are preparing for the possible movement of hundreds of thousands of people who may flee potential aggression.

The Baltic countries have repeatedly warned their NATO allies about various risks — from Russian cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to recent airspace violations by fighter jets and drones.

Despite Moscow’s claims that it has no plans to attack the Alliance, the Baltic countries have significantly increased their defense budgets after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Scenarios

According to the head of Lithuania’s fire service, who is involved in civil defense planning, the threats can vary.

"It's possible we will see a mighty army along the borders of the Baltics, with the apparent goal of taking all three countries in three days to a week," he suggested.

Other scenarios discussed in the local and foreign media include sabotage of communications or transport links, a mass influx of migrants, civil unrest among Russian-speaking minorities, or fake news that sparks mass panic and flight.

Evacuation plans and urban preparedness

During drills in Vilnius this week, authorities practiced evacuating 100 people. However, according to Reuters, real evacuation plans cover hundreds of thousands of people.

About 400,000 residents living within 40 kilometers of the Russian or Belarusian border — half of them — are in a zone of special attention.

In Kaunas, Lithuania, authorities plan to accommodate up to 300,000 people in schools, universities, churches, and sports arenas. In Vilnius, gathering points, evacuation routes, supply depots, and transport vehicles have already been designated.

At the same time, in the event of an emergency, priority will be given to military equipment heading to the Baltics through the Suwalki Corridor — the only land link to Poland.

Estonia plans to relocate about 10% of its population (out of 1.4 million), while Latvia is preparing to evacuate up to a third of its citizens.

"It's a very reassuring message to our society that we are ready and we are planning," the Lithuanian national security minister told the publication.

Russia’s threat to Europe

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, fears of new aggression by Moscow have grown across Europe. Countries have begun actively preparing — modernizing their armies and developing defense plans in the event of a potential attack.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested that the Russian army could attack a NATO member state within the next five years to test the Alliance’s strength.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that Russia has entered the first phase of preparation for a possible war with NATO, warning that Moscow could stage a false-flag provocation.

If Putin is ready for war with the West, and how NATO will respond – read more in the article by RBC-Ukraine.