Why Putin suddenly changed tone on Ukraine peace: 5 reasons behind shift
Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)
The ruler of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, recently spoke about a possible end to the war in Ukraine. Such statements come amid serious problems for the occupiers on the front and in the rear, according to a report by The Guardian.
Many questions are now arising regarding the words of the Russian leader. Therefore, the publication highlighted five main reasons that may have pushed Putin to make such statements.
Russia is losing the initiative on the battlefield
Previously, Moscow was gradually capturing territory. This created an illusion of Ukraine's inevitable defeat. But the situation has changed, and Russia is losing momentum.
Ukraine's recapture of Kupiansk in December surprised Western experts. The Kremlin had claimed to have taken the city a month earlier. The occupiers suffered a blow to their communications because their Starlink was turned off. Russia also restricted Telegram for its own military.
This helped the Armed Forces of Ukraine regain positions. In the Zaporizhzhia region, they recaptured over 100 square kilometers. In April, Russia suffered net territorial losses for the first time since August 2024. Moscow's slow victory no longer looks certain.
Russian losses exceed mobilization rates
Another reason: the Russian human resources are running out. Over the past five months, more soldiers have been killed or wounded than Russia can recruit.
In March and April, about 35,000 Russian soldiers were taken out. The main cause is drone strikes.
Economist Janis Kluge analyzed Russia's regional budgets. In 2026, 800 to 1,000 people are joining the army per day, which amounts to 24,000–30,000 per month.
Putin's ally Medvedev confirmed these trends. According to him, more than 80,000 people registered in the first quarter. Putin fears a new open mobilization, as the first wave in 2022 caused serious social unrest.
Strikes on oil refineries are destroying Kremlin revenues
The third reason is linked to the successful strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on enemy oil refineries deep in the rear. Although a sudden spike in oil prices kept the Russian economy afloat, in March oil exports brought Moscow only 19 billion, while the aggressor needs nearly 19 billion per day just to continue the war.
Currently, high oil prices are still keeping Russia afloat, but the situation is precarious. If the US and Iran reach an agreement, prices will collapse. Then the Russian budget will suffer a devastating blow.
Ukraine is becoming a drone superpower
Another factor is that Ukraine's dependence on the West is decreasing. Previously, Kyiv waited for F-16s and Patriots, but now Ukraine is investing in its own technologies.
Drones strike targets thousands of kilometers from the front line. Recently, a plant in Perm was attacked three times.
New cheap interceptor missiles have appeared. They save scarce Patriots. During March, 33,000 drones were shot down. That is twice as many as in February.
Ukraine is already exporting these technologies. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have become buyers. Moscow feels the threat even in the center of its capital. Due to fears of attacks on the parade, Zelenskyy had to issue a special decree.
Diplomatic games and hope for Trump
Not the least important reason is Trump. Putin wants to convince the US leader to pressure Kyiv. The goal is to force Ukraine to abandon the Donetsk region.
Putin proposed this at a summit in Alaska. Trump did not support it at the time. Now the dictator is looking for new ways and hinting at involving former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.
However, Moscow's appetites have not diminished. Yuri Ushakov stated directly: peace negotiations are impossible without the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from all of Donbas. Putin is simply trying to change his rhetoric to restore dialogue with the White House. While Trump is distracted by Iran, the Kremlin is preparing the ground for bargaining.
Who and how reacted to Putin's words about "ending the war"
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that someone pushed Putin toward negotiations.
"We have already pushed him a bit. And we have long been prepared for meetings, so we need to find a format. The war must end, and security must be reliably guaranteed," Zelenskyy emphasized.
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that although Russian state media presented the remarks as if Putin had directly declared a rapid end to the war, in fact he gave no indication that Moscow is ready to stop its aggression.
