Russia's offensive stalls as troops lose 116 square kilometers in a month, ISW says
Photo: Ukrainian artillery (Getty Images)
Russian forces posted negative battlefield dynamics in April 2026. Instead of the expected territorial gains, the Russian army recorded a net loss of controlled territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
According to the report, Russian forces lost control of 116 square kilometers in a single month. This has not happened since August 2024, when Ukraine's Armed Forces launched an operation in the Kursk region.
The pace of Russia's advance has been slowing, and the process began back in November 2025. Ukraine's Armed Forces are carrying out successful ground counterattacks. Precision medium-range strikes are disrupting Russian logistics. The enemy is being forced to defend areas where it had planned to attack.
Communications and coordination: what broke down in Russia's army
Russia's problems have specific causes. The country's military machine has begun to falter due to both internal and external factors.
Key blows to the enemy’s combat capability:
- Starlink: In February 2026, the blocking of terminals in occupied territories became systematic.
- Telegram: Restrictions on the messenger imposed by the Kremlin disrupted horizontal communication between units.
- Logistics: Ukrainian strikes on warehouses and headquarters have become more damaging.
This worsened the Russian army’s already chronic problems. Without stable communications, coordinating offensive operations has become nearly impossible, the ISW said.
Weather factor: abnormal winter and muddy conditions
Nature has also played in favor of Ukraine's defenders. This winter proved harsher than the previous one, with lower temperatures in eastern Ukraine. Precipitation levels were also significantly higher.
The front is now facing muddy conditions. Melting snow and spring rains have turned the ground into a trap for military equipment. Russian mechanized units have become bogged down in the mud.
ISW analysts note that Russian forces usually try to resume activity in May when the ground dries out. However, whether they have enough resources this time remains a major question.
Fake victories: how the Kremlin manipulates reports
Photo: Institute for the Study of War
The Kremlin is trying to conceal the real situation on the battlefield, analysts say. To do this, Russia is using what they describe as an "infiltration" tactic. Russian groups move into gray zones between Ukrainian positions. They do not control these areas, but propaganda portrays it as having "taken control."
Comparative statistics on Russia's advance:
- November 2025–April 2026: 1,443 square kilometers captured
- The same period a year earlier: 2,368 square kilometers captured
- Average pace in 2026: just 2.9 square kilometers per day (compared with 9.76 square kilometers in 2025)
Russian forces are trying to create the illusion of constant forward movement. In reality, the level of actual control over newly claimed areas is minimal. Most of the territories Russia reports capturing are contested areas where occupying forces are unable to establish a foothold, the Institute for the Study of War concluded.
What is happening on the front now
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has noticed "specific activity" along sections of the border with Belarus. Minor provocations from that direction are possible, but he noted that they would come at a higher cost for the Belarusian side.
It also emerged that Russian forces once again falsely claimed advances in the Sumy region. The settlement of Myropillia remains under the control of Ukraine's Armed Forces.
Ukrainian forces also struck a Russian Iskander missile system launcher, ammunition depots, and drone command centers. All of the strikes targeted facilities located in temporarily occupied territories.
