Russian strikes likely to slow: ISW assesses impact of Starlink block on Ukrainian front lines
ISW assessed how blocking Starlink for Russian forces could affect the situation on the front lines (photo: Getty Images)
Blocking Starlink will force Russian forces to reduce the pace of strikes on Ukrainian logistics. This will be felt most by Russian units in the Pokrovsk direction, where the enemy had actively used satellite communications to guide drones, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that Ukraine's efforts to block Starlink terminals for Russian forces are likely to affect Russia's attempts to conduct battlefield air isolation.
Several Russian military bloggers complained that Russian forces can no longer use the terminals and expressed concern about the consequences that the loss of Starlink capabilities may have on the battlefield.
On February 5, a commander of a brigade of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported that Russian forces had recently accumulated a significant number of Starlink terminals, which provided stable communications between units.
The commander stated that Russians had begun integrating Starlink to control drones, but efforts to block Russian terminals will deprive the enemy of the ability to conduct reconnaissance and strike missions, maintain communication between groups, and will also complicate Russia's offensive operations.
He noted that recent attacks on Russian terminals have not "brought down" Russian forces but have caused them significant losses.
According to ISW, without Starlink terminals, Russian forces will likely be unable to conduct a battlefield isolation campaign at the same pace and to the same depth as in recent weeks.
In particular, they recently used Starlink-supported drones for real-time target guidance and to extend the range of unmanned aerial vehicles to strike moving targets such as trains, as well as Ukrainian transport along the E-50 Pokrovsk–Pavlohrad highway in Dnipropetrovsk region.
"Russian forces will likely struggle to maintain this BAI campaign at the same intensity levels in the near-term unless Russian forces can find workarounds to the blocks or adapt new technological solutions to replace Starlink," the analysts note.
Starlink blocked for Russians in Ukraine
In January, information emerged that Russian forces were increasingly using Starlink-equipped drones to bypass Ukrainian air defense.
Immediately after that, Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedoro,v stated that the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine had promptly contacted SpaceX to address the issue.
Fedorov also reported that only authorized Starlink terminals would operate on the territory of Ukraine. This would be the next step in countering Russia's use of satellite internet on its drones.
It later became known that Ukrainian forces must promptly verify the Starlink terminals they use for defense purposes so that they continue to operate after the blocking.
The blocking of Starlink has led to serious problems for the Russian army in recent days. In particular, troop command and control have been complicated, and assault operations have been partially halted.
