Putin's statements on new Oreshnik strikes signify empty words and Kremlin disinformation - ISW

The report states that Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to highlight the technical characteristics of the Oreshnik missile are part of a broader reflexive control campaign being conducted by the Kremlin.

The ISW believes that emphasizing the missile's range and payload, while comparing its destructive capabilities to that of a meteor, is intended to intimidate Ukraine and the West and divert Kyiv from further Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory using Western systems.

"Even Putin's threat of strikes on decision-making centers in Kyiv rings empty - Russian forces regularly strike civilian and critical infrastructure in Kyiv City with drones and nuclear-capable missiles," the report states.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summarized this fact on November 29 in response to Putin's statements at a CSTO security council meeting in Kazakhstan, saying, "Putin wants to add thousands more to the thousands of missiles that have already hit Ukraine."

Reuters, citing five sources close to US intelligence, reported on November 27 that the Oreshnik strike on November 21 did not alter US intelligence assessments that the Kremlin is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, even in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with Western weapons.

"Putin's constant flaunting of the Oreshnik and Russian missile capabilities therefore remains part of the Kremlin's reflexive control information operation and is unlikely to presage the development of particularly novel Russian deep strike capabilities," the Institute for the Study of War concluded.

Russia's strike with an intercontinental ballistic missile on Ukraine

Last week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used Storm Shadow cruise missiles for the first time since the full-scale invasion to strike targets on Russian territory. According to media reports, the military hit an enemy command post near Kursk, resulting in the deaths of Russian and North Korean soldiers, including North Korean generals.

In response, on November 21, the Russian army launched an intercontinental ballistic missile called Oreshnik at Dnipro. However, Ukrainian intelligence reported that Oreshnik is the name of the research project under which the missile was developed. The actual system is called Kedr.

Ukraine is expecting new systems from NATO countries capable of intercepting this type of missile.

Meanwhile, Putin has threatened to target decision-making centers in Kyiv with the Oreshnik.