Energy truce was tactical move: ISW explains Kremlin strategy
Russian President Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)
The Kremlin will likely try to present its alleged compliance with the energy truce as a significant concession to gain leverage in the next round of talks in Abu Dhabi, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report says.
Read also: After energy truce claim: Ukraine sends US full record of Russian strikes
Analysts are convinced that the massive combined Russian attack on the night of February 3 only confirmed that Russia never intended to use the moratorium on energy strikes to de-escalate the war or to seriously advance the peace talks initiated by the United States.
As noted by ISW, Russia has previously proposed short-term ceasefires to imitate interest in a peaceful settlement of the war, while repeatedly rejecting calls from Ukraine and the United States for a longer or permanent moratorium on long-range strikes or a ceasefire.
"The Kremlin will likely attempt to portray its adherence to this short-term energy strikes moratorium as a significant concession to gain leverage in the upcoming peace talks, even though the Kremlin used these few days to stockpile missiles for a larger strike package," the analysts believe.
At the same time, ISW emphasizes that this truce is not a significant concession by Russia, as Russian forces continued to strike Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure during the moratorium, simply shifting from one target to another.
Energy truce
On January 29, United States President Donald Trump said he asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to temporarily halt strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure due to severe frost.
The proposed energy truce was to last one week. At the same time, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow agreed to halt strikes only until February 1.
The energy truce began on January 30, but already on the night of February 3, Russian forces carried out massive strikes on energy facilities in several regions of Ukraine. As a result of the massive attack, a large number of Ukrainians were left without heating.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that Russia violated the so-called energy truce and waited for the coldest days of this winter to launch the attack.
Meanwhile, United States President Donald Trump said that there was no violation of the agreements.
At the same time, the Embassy of Ukraine provided the United States State Department with detailed information on all attacks that took place since Russia "agreed" to the energy truce.
