Can Russia really launch 1,000 Shahed drones daily? Expert weighs in
Predictions that the Russian army will soon be launching 1,000 Shahed-type attack drones per day can be considered somewhat exaggerated. At the moment, Russia is not even capable of consistently launching 500 drones a day, and most of them are decoys, stated aviation expert Valerii Romanenko in a comment to RBC-Ukraine’s YouTube channel.
Romanenko noted that reports by Western and Ukrainian media about Russia consistently launching a thousand drones daily are fueling panic. He suggested looking at drone launch statistics from the first ten days of July and comparing them to the same period in June.
"So far, the Russians have launched 2,500 drones of all types. In the first ten days of last month, it was 2,300,” he said.
The expert noted that following recent mass attacks, the Russian army is unlikely to launch more than a hundred drones over the next two days. Statistics show that compared to the same period in June, the number of launches has increased by 9%, with a possible additional 4–5% growth over the next few days.
"Where would 1,000 drones come from? For example, Russia produces around 2,700 Shaheds per month. Sure, they could launch them all in one day, that would be a record, but then they will rest for a month," Romanenko said.
The expert expressed confidence that launching 1,000 drones daily on a consistent basis is currently impossible for Russia, not just through the end of 2025, but likely not even by the end of 2026.
"As of today, Russia is capable of launching a maximum of 100 Shaheds and up to 90 Gerans per day," he concluded.
Drone legions
The new commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, recently stated that Russian forces may eventually be capable of launching up to 1,000 Shahed drones per day. According to him, this assessment is based on gathered intelligence data.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Air Force holds the position that Russia is currently not capable of launching 1,000 drones per day. Although Russia is ramping up drone production, it is still far from reaching the capacity required for such large-scale attacks.
On the night of July 9, the Russian forces launched 728 Shahed and Geran drones on Ukraine. On the night of July 10, Russia launched an additional 397 strike drones and decoys. In total, Russia launched 1,125 drones at Ukraine over the course of two nights.
