When will war end? Ukrainians share grim forecast
Ukrainians increasingly doubt quick end to war (photo: Getty Images)
Ukrainians are increasingly less likely to believe in a quick end to the war with Russia. Only one in five hopes the war will end by mid-2026, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
According to the latest KIIS survey, only 20% of Ukrainians expect the war with Russia to end in the coming weeks or by mid-2026.
At the same time, 18% predict the conflict will end in the second half of 2026, while 43% believe the war will last until 2027 or longer. Another 19% of respondents were unable to give a definite answer.
For comparison, in September–October 2025, 33% of Ukrainians hoped the war would end by mid-2026, while in December 2025, that figure stood at 26%. This indicates that over time, fewer citizens are counting on a quick end to the conflict.
photo: KIIS survey data (screenshot)
The survey also reflects Ukrainians' attitudes toward negotiations and their expectations regarding their effectiveness, as well as self-assessments of societal resilience, which is important amid difficult weather conditions and significant damage to the country's energy infrastructure.
Three possible scenarios for the war in Ukraine in 2026
Recently, The Wall Street Journal modeled three main scenarios for the development of the war in Ukraine in 2026. Analysts note that the conflict will continue until one of the sides exhausts its resources or will to fight.
The first scenario is a continued war of attrition. In this case, both sides continue active combat operations, seeking to weaken the opponent and withstand the pressure of a prolonged conflict.
The second scenario is Ukraine's exhaustion under pressure. This scenario assumes that economic, military, and social costs for Ukraine increase, creating additional pressure on the state and the population.
The third scenario is Russia's fatigue from militarization. Under this scenario, prolonged military activity and resource strain lead to exhaustion on Russia's part, which could affect the further course of the conflict.
According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, even territorial concessions by Ukraine would not stop the aggressive actions of Russia.
More about the Kremlin's ambitions can be found in the RBC-Ukraine article - Kremlin ambitions: What Putin wants from war against Ukraine in 2026.
