Ukraine withdrawal from Donbas would not stop Russia, ISW warns
ISW reveals Kremlin strategic goal (illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Russia's territorial and political demands are far broader than its statements about Donbas that the Kremlin presents to Western audiences, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that Moscow's public signals about readiness for a peaceful settlement conceal a strategic goal — forcing Ukraine and the West to accept capitulatory terms.
'Donbas as a path to peace' is only a cover
According to ISW, Russia's chief negotiator Kirill Dmitriev has stated that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas could become a "path of peace."
At the same time, other senior Russian officials demonstrate a different position. In particular, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov has publicly mentioned the creation of so-called buffer zones in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, indicating much broader territorial ambitions on the part of Moscow.
Kremlin puts forward demands not only to Ukraine but also to NATO
ISW emphasizes that Russia is simultaneously advancing political and strategic demands toward the West.
Head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin stated that any peace settlement must eliminate the "root causes" of the war — wording that the Kremlin traditionally uses to justify aggression against Ukraine and to pressure NATO.
Russian officials: Donbas is not the main issue
Deputy head of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee Aleksey Zhuravlyov directly stated that Donbas is not the key issue, focusing instead on NATO and the so-called Ukrainian neo-Nazism.
ISW stresses that these messages fully replicate Russia's positions from 2021–2022 — demands to limit NATO expansion, roll the Alliance back to its 1997 borders, and replace Ukraine's democratic government with a pro-Russian one.
Even the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas would not stop Russia
Analysts draw attention to publications in the Russian state and ultra-nationalist media, including the outlet Tsargrad. These materials state that even a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas is viewed only as a temporary stage.
Among Russia's subsequent demands are "denazification," "demilitarization," and full control over Ukraine's political course.
ISW: Russia seeks not peace, but Ukraine's capitulation
Statements by Russian officials aimed at a domestic audience confirm that the Kremlin will not be satisfied with a limited peace settlement. According to ISW, Russia's strategic goal is the complete capitulation of Ukraine and a change in Europe's security architecture.
Talks in Abu Dhabi
On January 23–24, two-day talks were held in Abu Dhabi between delegations from Ukraine, the United States, and Russia, focused on a possible end to the war.
According to RBC-Ukraine sources, the first round was introductory in nature, and on Saturday, the talks continued in an expanded format. After that, the parties split into two subgroups — political and military.
The greatest progress was achieved in the military track, while no agreements have yet been reached on territorial issues. Within the military subgroup, possible force disengagement, mechanisms for monitoring a ceasefire, and the creation of a coordination center for these processes were discussed.
The sides agreed to prepare their own proposals on the future ceasefire regime a week before the next meeting. At the same time, according to media reports, Moscow insists on sharing electricity produced by the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant between Ukraine and Russia.
As Axios reports, the next round of trilateral talks is scheduled for February 1 and is again expected to take place in Abu Dhabi. US representatives also do not rule out that a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin could take place in the near future.
