Ukraine to build own Patriot missiles, but Russia may strike first — ISW
Photo: Delays with the Patriot missiles give Russia a chance to inflict greater damage (Getty Images)
While Ukraine awaits the launch of its own production of Patriot interceptor missiles, Russia has time to inflict maximum damage. Russia is capable of launching dozens of ballistic missiles every month, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
License for domestic Patriot production
On July 8, US President Donald Trump stated that the United States would grant Ukraine a license to manufacture interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense systems. According to him, production could begin in as little as two to three months.
It is not yet clear exactly which type of interceptor is being referred to, the more powerful PAC-3 or the simpler PAC-2. Trump also noted that the American manufacturer had not yet been informed of the decision regarding Ukraine.
The speed at which production can begin will depend on several factors:
- Availability of the basic components that make up the interceptor missile
- Scaling of the entire supply chain that produces these parts.
Ukrainian forces are quite effective at intercepting cruise missiles and drones. However, the situation with ballistic missiles is significantly worse due to a shortage of interceptor missiles.
During Russia’s last two massive strikes, on the nights of July 1–2 and July 5–6, Ukrainian air defense forces did not intercept a single ballistic missile.
Until Ukraine launches its own production of interceptors, Russia retains a window of opportunity. Russia may intensify its ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine to inflict maximum damage before the country can more reliably defend its airspace.
Due to a shortage of ammunition, the Patriot systems had to be switched from automatic to manual mode.
Now operators decide for themselves which targets to shoot down so as not to waste scarce missiles on cheap drones.
However, Trump stated that the US would allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot systems. He said that it would be technologically challenging, but that Ukraine would be able to handle it.
