Russian army captures northern salient of Ukrainian army in Kursk region and advances in Sudzha - ISW

Situation north of Sudzha

Geolocated footage released on March 8 indicates that Russian forces have captured the villages of Novaya Sorochina (northwest of Sudzha), Malaya Loknya (south of Novaya Sorochina), and Lebedevka (south of Malaya Loknya), along with the fields between these settlements.

Russian military bloggers claimed that the 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) took control of Malaya Loknya, while the 51st Airborne Regiment (106th VDV Division) seized Lebedevka.

Furthermore, Russian bloggers claim that the Russian army has captured the villages of Pravda and Ivashkovshyi (both to the north of Sudzha), as well as positions on an unspecified section of the railway line between Malaya Loknya and Sudzha.

The bloggers assert that Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz and 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) were involved in the capture of Kubatkin (north of Sudzha) and Pravda. Additional units from the 106th Russian Airborne Division are reportedly advancing on Kazachya Loknya from the direction of Lebedevka.

According to the Russian bloggers, Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions in Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (north of Sudzha), and Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha). They claim that most Ukrainian forces have retreated from positions in the northern part of the bulge towards Kazachya Loknya and Sudzha.

Russian bloggers also stated that Russia's preparatory efforts to destroy bridges north and south of Sudzha have significantly hindered Ukraine's ability to retreat back towards Sudzha. One blogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near Malaya Loknya.

Fighting in Sudzha

Meanwhile, Russian forces have advanced into Sudzha itself, with support from North Korean troops.

Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces have moved into the industrial zone in the northeast of Sudzha and are holding positions along the eastern bank of the Sudzha River within the city.

One blogger stated that certain areas of the industrial zone are a disputed gray zone. Another blogger claimed that Russian troops are trying to push toward the central part of Sudzha and that, in at least one area, they have crossed to the western bank of the Sudzha River.

Additionally, according to Russian bloggers, the Russian army has also advanced into the villages of Knyazhiy 1 and Knyazhiy 2 (both northwest of Sudzha) and the residential district of Zamoste to the southeast of Sudzha.

On March 9, Ukrainian sources informed the Ukrainian TV channel Suspilne that two battalions of North Korean troops operating in the Sudzha area appear to be better trained and are operating more cohesively.

Border of the Sumy region

On March 8, released geolocation footage indicated that Russian forces had advanced across the international border of the Kursk region, crossing into the Sumy region, and had moved south of the city of Sudzha. Russians also recently captured Novenke (northeast of the city of Sumy and immediately across the international border in the Sumy region).

According to Russian sources, Russian forces advanced to the village of Melavoy (south of Sudzha) and Gogolevka (southwest of Sudzha).

A Ukrainian soldier serving in the Kursk region claimed that the Russian army advanced south of Sudzha with the support of North Korean forces and the massive use of FPV drones equipped with fiber-optic cables.

Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces attacked near the border checkpoint Sudzha (southwest of Sudzha along the N-07 highway) and that elements of the Russian 810th Marine Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) attacked near Guiyevo (south of Sudzha).

Another Russian blogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near the settlements of Melovoy and Goncharovka (west of Sudzha).

Key findings

• Attention is drawn to the temporal correlation between the suspension of intelligence sharing between the US and Ukraine and the onset of Russia's capture of the Ukrainian Kursk salient.

• Reports on the scale of the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine continue to suggest that this halt is likely to affect Ukraine's ability to defend against Russian attacks.

• Meanwhile, Ukraine's European allies continue to provide material and financial support.

• Russia continues to deepen its relations with countries opposed to the US, coinciding with bilateral negotiations between the US and Russia.

Situation on the front and the shift in US policy towards Ukraine

Recently, the administration of US President Donald Trump suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Unofficially, the cause is believed to be a dispute between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that took place on February 28 at the White House.

As noted by Western media, the decision has significantly affected the Ukrainian military's operations in the Kursk region.

France and the UK have agreed to share intelligence with Ukraine. However, the capabilities of these countries' intelligence services are weaker compared to those of the US.

On the evening of March 9, Washington time, Trump expressed readiness to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine. He hinted that the decision would be linked to the results of negotiations between Ukrainian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia on March 11-12.