Russia to use three-tier plan to destabilize Ukraine in May - Defense Intelligence of Ukraine
Representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitskyi (photo: Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
Representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitskyi, predicts that in May, Russia will use a three-tiered plan to destabilize Ukraine, consisting of military, disinformation, and international components, according to an interview with The Economist.
The main factor is the military, Skibitskyi noted.
According to him, it will take weeks for the recently allocated military aid from the US to reach the front line. At the same time, as the publication writes, according to the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, this aid is unlikely to match Ukrainian potential with Russian stocks of ammunition or provide effective protection against Russian-guided aerial bombs.
The second part of the Russian plan is the Kremlin's disinformation campaign in Ukraine, which will aim to undermine Ukrainian mobilization and the political legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose presidential term is conditionally ending on May 20. Although the Constitution allows for the indefinite extension of his term during wartime, the president's opponents are already emphasizing his vulnerability, the publication writes.
The third part of the plan, according to the Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate, is Russia's campaign for the international isolation of Ukraine. "They will be shaking things up whichever way they can," he said.
US aid to Ukraine
At the end of April, US President Joe Biden signed funding for assistance to Ukraine for nearly $61 billion.
On the same day, April 24, Biden announced a new $1 billion military aid package, which is set to include missiles for air defense systems, artillery and rocket ammunition, and armored vehicles. According to Biden, the shipment will start in the coming hours, literally within a few hours.
Two days later, on April 26, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin announced the allocation of the largest $6 billion military aid package, which will include interceptors for NASAMS and Patriot systems, drones, artillery ammunition, surface-to-air missiles, and more.
Politico reported that this involves contracts for the supply of weapons from US manufacturers worth $6 billion. According to the publication, the equipment will be delivered to Ukraine over the next few years.
White House spokesperson Karin Jean-Pierre stated on April 29 that Ukraine is already receiving weapons from the new aid package. It is unclear which specific package she was referring to.
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that with Western-supplied weapons, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to prevent significant operational advances by Russian forces during the planned summer offensive by the aggressor. However, the Russian army will still use certain advantages and adaptations to create a significant threat to the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Global Peace Summit
Zelenskyy believes that Russian president Vladimir Putin will try to disrupt the Global Peace Summit, which will take place in Switzerland in mid-June to discuss ways to peacefully resolve the war in Ukraine.
Russia has not been invited to the summit.
Details about who will participate in the summit can be found in the article by RBC-Ukraine.
