Russia seized far less territory in Ukraine than its military claims - ISW
Photo: Russian commanders overestimate the amount of captured Ukrainian territory (Getty Images)
Russian military leadership is inflating statistics about territorial gains in Ukraine in 2024. The actual numbers are much lower than those presented by Russian commanders, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to the ISW, on December 18, Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had captured approximately 4,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024. However, ISW estimates that the actual figure is only 3,306 square kilometers.
Gerasimov's inflated data contrasts with more accurate statements from Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
At a Ministry of Defense board meeting on December 16, Belousov stated that Russian forces advance on average daily by about 30 square kilometers.
Meanwhile, ISW, relying on geolocation data, determined that in November 2024, Russian forces were advancing at a rate of approximately 27.96 square kilometers per day.
Additionally, Belousov claimed that Russian forces had seized about 99% of the Luhansk region, 70% of the Donetsk region, approximately 74% of the Zaporizhzhia region, and about 76% of the Kherson region.
"ISW assesses that Russian forces occupy roughly 99 percent of the Luhansk region, 66 percent of the Donetsk region, and 73 percent of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions each," the ISW stated.
Frontline situation
According to the evening report from the Ukrainian General Staff on December 18, the fiercest fighting is ongoing in the Pokrovsk direction in the Donetsk region and in the Kursk region, Russia.
The city of Kurakhove is still under the control of Ukraine's Defense Forces. However, the situation is extremely difficult due to the significant Russian advantage in manpower.
Ukrainian forces may also lose Pokrovsk. As of now, Russian troops are already within 6-10 kilometers of the city.
