Battle for Pokrovsk: What Russia is planning and risks for Ukrainian forces
Photo: Pokrovsk remains one of the main targets for Russian troops (Getty Images)
Russian forces are attempting to break through to Pokrovsk, a crucial logistical hub for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region. The enemy may begin fighting directly for the city in the near future, which they aim to bypass from the flanks.
RBC-Ukraine has compiled a report on the situation in Pokrovsk, its significance, and the threats to the Ukrainian Armed Forces if the city falls.
Situation in Pokrovsk
Pokrovsk is located in the western part of the Donetsk region, which is why it is referred to as the "western gateway to Donbas." In recent months, occupying forces have managed to get within 6 to 10 kilometers of the settlement.
According to DeepState's map, the Russians are now just about one and a half kilometers away from the southwestern outskirts of the city from the "gray zone."
Photo: Russians are approaching the outskirts of Pokrovsk (DeepStateMap)
Pokrovsk holds significant strategic value, as it is an industrial city and provides access to important roads and railway connections. Due to the worsening security situation near Pokrovsk, work at Ukraine's largest coal mine has already been partially suspended.
There is no gas supply in the city, and free water delivery has also been halted. Due to constant Russian shelling, power outages are reported. Despite this, 11,000 people remain in Pokrovsk. Local authorities are urging evacuation due to the escalating danger.
Russia’s goals regarding Pokrovsk
Ukrainian Defense Forces are repelling Russian attacks near Pishchane, which is close to Pokrovsk. According to Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops, there are no Russian saboteurs in Pokrovsk, and fighting on the outskirts of the city has ceased.
Oleksii Hetman, a military expert and reserve major of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, believes it is very likely that Russian forces want to move from the southeast toward Pokrovsk and avoid street battles. The enemy understands that street fighting could take months, and they need to advance quickly.
"Therefore, their plan is to encircle the city from the north and south. In other words, they want to create a full or semi-circle around it and force our garrison, which is holding the defense, to withdraw from the settlement. This is understood by everyone, especially by our General Staff and the units involved in planning military operations there," Hetman said in an interview on the YouTube channel of the RBC-Ukraine.
Fierce fighting continues in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces are striving to hold the line. However, Hetman notes that the superior enemy forces make it difficult for the Ukrainian army to sustain this defense.
Risks for the Ukrainian Armed Forces if the city is captured
Since Pokrovsk is the last major city before the administrative border with the Dnipropetrovsk region (a direct road leads to Pavlohrad), media outlets have increasingly suggested that capturing Pokrovsk could open the way for the enemy to assault the Dnipropetrovsk region.
However, Hetman assures that no army can advance indefinitely, and every offensive has a specific end goal. After reaching that goal, the forces stop and prepare for the next operation.
"This operation, which is happening now, was also prepared. It has been in the works since late last year. And the talk about opening the gates to Dnipropetrovsk... Well, remember the 'Wagner' group and Bakhmut," Hetman points out.
He explains that during planning, the military, logistics, and specific objectives are calculated to determine which frontlines to reach. Therefore, the expert argues that assessments suggesting that after Pokrovsk, if Russia manages to capture it, there will be a pause similar to Bakhmut are not accurate.
"However, that does not mean the war will end or that they will not plan subsequent operations. This operation is also planned for the Donetsk direction. They are executing it as best they can. Progress is not rapid but constant. It is not exactly what they planned," Hetman adds.
Thus, in the event of Pokrovsk's capture, combat operations will continue, but the intensity will decrease, and the Russians will prepare for the next operation. However, there will be a pause, as has happened before, the expert concluded.
Notably, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that the most difficult situation is currently in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
Ukrainian forces are fighting against Russian units, which primarily outnumber them in terms of manpower. Regarding the Pokrovsk direction, according to the commander-in-chief, unconventional decisions must be made to strengthen defense resilience and more effectively eliminate Russians. The fighting is extremely intense.
Sources: the Ukrainian General Staff, the DeepState project, Pokrovsk City Military Administration, a statement from Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops, and an exclusive comment from military expert and reserve major Oleksii Hetman.
