Russia may stage radiation incident and blame Ukraine — ISW

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Nuclear threats against West

Analysts note that Russian officials use statements from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service to amplify rhetoric regarding potential use of nuclear weapons. Specifically, threats are directed at the United Kingdom and France — countries leading negotiations within the so-called Coalition of the Willing concerning security guarantees for post-war Ukraine.

According to ISW, the Kremlin is attempting to:

• Sow fear of escalation between nuclear powers;

• Deter European countries from providing guarantees to Ukraine;

• Force the US to limit support for these initiatives.

Kremlin may be preparing information operation

ISW analysts suggest that Russia may attempt to use a potential radiological incident for its own informational purposes. Experts assess that Moscow could:

• Cause or allow a radiological event on Ukrainian territory;

• Subsequently, blame Ukraine for using nuclear or radiological weapons.

The goal of such actions would be to weaken Western support for Ukraine and impact the morale of Ukrainian society.

Risks to nuclear infrastructure

The report emphasizes that Russian forces regularly attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including facilities related to nuclear power. Such strikes can create a risk of radiological incidents — both intentional and accidental.

Nuclear weapons in Europe

It was previously reported that France allows the possibility of deploying its nuclear weapons on the territory of allies as an alternative to American nuclear deterrence in Europe. Subsequently, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the launch of strategic discussions to ensure the security of the entire European continent through French nuclear capabilities.

Additionally, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed that Berlin and Paris are conducting negotiations on creating a system of European nuclear deterrence. According to media reports, several European countries openly support discussions on developing their own nuclear capabilities amid declining trust in the US.

At the same time, Polish President Karol Nawrocki stated that the country should consider creating its own nuclear weapons, as it is, in his words, "on the brink of armed conflict."

Against the backdrop of these events, Russian leader Vladimir Putin claimed that Britain allegedly intends to provide Ukraine with nuclear weapons. In Britain, his words were called a lie.