Russia could attack NATO and dodge retaliation — Politico
Photo: Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
European officials fear that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin will use the next two years to strike at NATO allies, while Trump is in the White House and the EU has not yet rebuilt its military, according to Politico.
Window of opportunity: what Europe fears
The US is withdrawing from Europe, transatlantic relations are strained, and the EU is not yet ready to defend itself independently. It is precisely this moment, according to European officials, that the Kremlin leader could use to test the alliance’s strength.
"Something could happen very soon — there is a Russian window of opportunity," says Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola.
Officials consider a full-scale ground offensive against a NATO country unlikely. Russia is exhausted by the war in Ukraine. Instead, they are talking about something more targeted: operations that will create ambiguity and sow discord within the alliance.
What forms might the attack take
"It could be a drone operation, it could be a Baltic Sea operation ... It could be something in the Arctic, targeting small islands. They have the shadow fleet, which is already partly militarized," Aaltola says.
The goal is to put pressure on Ukraine’s allies and avoid a direct response from the US. If the border is not crossed, Washington may declare it not strategically important and advise negotiations with Russia, which is exactly what the Kremlin is counting on.
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned: Putin may escalate horizontally against another neighbor, trying to avoid humiliating negotiations with Ukraine.
NATO: Panic plays into Putin’s hands
There is no unity in assessing the threat in Europe. Finland and Lithuania are sounding the alarm, while Estonia and NATO are urging people not to panic, because panic itself is a tool of the Kremlin.
"Russia is very busy in Ukraine. I don't think it has enough capacity to try," says Estonian President Alar Karis.
"You never know. And, nobody was expecting the war in Ukraine," he adds.
Aaltola warns: a false sense of security is the worst thing that can happen. If society does not feel threatened, resources are not allocated to defense.
"Escalating the [Ukraine] conflict to some other theaters could give Russia a card to play with ... the war is exhausting their resources, so they are looking for a way out," says MP Aaltola.
Former US Special Representative Keith Kellogg assessed Russia’s losses in the war and explained Washington’s position on the negotiations. The US side continues to pressure both sides of the conflict to break the deadlock.
The US is preparing a new phase of pressure in the negotiations. This involves specific steps that Washington plans to take in the near future to accelerate the achievement of agreements.
