Putin to prepare for protracted war, not sustainable compromise peace - ISW
Photo: Vladimir Putin, Russian president (Getty Images)
Vladimir Putin continues to prepare the Russian domestic audience for a prolonged war in Ukraine, rather than a lasting peace based on compromise, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report.
The report notes that in recent days and weeks, Putin and other officials have been intensifying their messages that Russia expects a prolonged war in Ukraine and peace only on the Kremlin's terms.
Just before his phone call with Trump on March 18, the President held a closed meeting with businessmen during the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs' Congress.
Sources and journalists present at the meeting claim that Putin warned Russian businessmen about slow and difficult negotiations to end the war. He advised the business representatives "not to be naive," considering who would be discussing the issues. Putin also publicly stated that Russia should not expect a quick lifting of sanctions from the West.
The ISW noted that the Kremlin has long been broadcasting Russian demands for territorial and security concessions beyond the current front line. The Russian government needs this to justify military efforts and secure the return of investments for the Russian people.
"Putin and other Kremlin officials will likely continue messaging to domestic audiences that the war in Ukraine remains a protracted Russian effort and that Russia will not make peace in Ukraine quickly," assumes analytics.
Allies split
Additionally, the Institute for the Study of War believes that Russian officials are working to escalate tensions between the United States and its European allies to undermine Western support for Ukraine and weaken the NATO alliance.
According to the ISW report, Kremlin officials continue to reinforce narratives indicating that Putin remains committed to his long-standing goal of conquering Ukraine. He is also attempting to use upcoming ceasefire negotiations to extract preemptive concessions from Ukraine and the United States.
Constitutional nuances
The intention to pursue a prolonged war is further evidenced by the fact that Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu is urging Kyiv to amend its Constitution to allow the recognition of Russia's occupation and the illegal annexation of occupied territories.
However, ISW reminded that Ukraine's Basic Law prohibits the government from holding elections or making constitutional amendments during martial law. The government also does not have the legal right to lift martial law while Russia continues its offensive on Ukrainian territory.
Ceasefire negotiations
On March 18, US President Donald Trump had a phone call with Vladimir Putin.
During the conversation, the leaders discussed the initial steps toward peace. Putin rejected the US's proposal for a complete ceasefire along the front lines for 30 days but suggested that both Ukraine and Russia cease strikes on infrastructure and energy facilities.
On March 19, Trump had a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy regarding the initial steps toward a ceasefire. Zelenskyy stated that Putin is not interested in ending the war, despite Russia's weaker position on the battlefield compared to last year.
The next step in the negotiation process will be a meeting between US and Russian delegations in Saudi Arabia. The parties will discuss the expansion of a partial ceasefire. The highest leadership from both countries will not participate in these talks.
