Operation in Kursk region shows how empty Russia's red lines are - ISW
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The operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kursk region has demonstrated how empty Russia's red lines are. Despite the advance of Ukrainian soldiers, Russia is still unwilling to declare war, martial law, or a new wave of mobilization, according to Angelica Evans, a Russia researcher at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to Evans, the West is quite actively supporting Ukraine's operation in the Kursk region. At the same time, Kyiv's partners continue to express concern about the risk of escalation if the Ukrainian Defense Forces are allowed to use long-range weapons to strike military targets in Russia's rear areas.
"Unfortunately, the Kremlin's reflexive control campaign has historically succeeded in constraining Western support for Ukraine by continually threatening conventional or nuclear escalations in response to increased Western military assistance or rhetorical support for Ukraine. We've very rarely seen the Kremlin actually respond in a meaningful way to increases in Western support for Ukraine," Evans says.
The operation in the Kursk region demonstrates the Kremlin's slowness and indecision in responding to any possible escalation. Over the past weeks, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have been advancing in the Kursk area with Western equipment, yet the Kremlin has been reluctant to declare a state of war, martial law, or announce another wave of mobilization.
"The Kremlin appears to be continuing to prioritize slow, grinding advances in Donetsk Oblast over defending and retaking Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. Select Western officials have expressed support for lifting the restrictions on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russia with Western weapons in recent days, and hopefully we will see more Western governments moving towards easing those restrictions," the ISW expert adds.
Operation in Kursk region
In recent weeks, hostilities have continued in the Kursk region. Currently, 100 Russian settlements are under Ukrainian control. The purpose of the operation is to protect residents of Ukraine's border areas from shelling and to create a buffer zone.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the Ukrainian military was not only restoring justice but also achieving significant results as part of this operation.
In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation in the Kursk region led to Moscow being forced to withdraw about 30,000 troops from the frontline in Ukraine and redirect them to this area.
