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Latvia sees growing risk of Russian escalation against NATO

Sat, July 04, 2026 - 19:10
3 min
Can Russia launch a full-scale invasion of a NATO country?
Latvia sees growing risk of Russian escalation against NATO Edgars Rinkēvičs (photo: Getty Images)

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs said he cannot rule out Russian escalation against NATO countries. He stressed that the Alliance must respond decisively to any threat from Moscow.

"We have to be prepared (for escalation by Russia – ed.). We can't rule out any scenario. But I would say we should not be afraid. We should simply give a very, very short and powerful message: if Russia challenges NATO, NATO is going to respond appropriately," the Latvian president said.

At the same time, Rinkēvičs noted that Russia currently lacks the military forces needed to launch a full-scale invasion of a NATO member state.

The Latvian leader also said that achieving peace in Ukraine is impossible without Europe's involvement. According to him, it is in Europe's interest for Ukraine to become a member of the European Union, particularly for security reasons.

Returning to the topic of NATO, Rinkēvičs argued that spending 5% of GDP on defense alone is not enough. What matters most, he said, is having real military capabilities.

"You have money, but you also need to have armament, missiles, and equipment that you can buy with that money. And here we see that we have some issues with defense industry," he explained.

Rinkēvičs was also asked whether Europe could replace the US military presence if Washington reduces its troop deployments on the continent.

He replied that building up the capabilities currently provided by the United States would require time, funding, and investment in personnel and equipment.

"I would say that today the United States are indispensable for defense of Europe, in making NATO a successful alliance," he concluded.

Threat of Russian attack on NATO

In April, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia could attack a NATO member within months rather than years. He also expressed doubts that the United States would defend Europe in such a scenario.

In June, The Guardian, citing intelligence sources, reported that Russia could be preparing military and hybrid provocations on NATO's eastern flank to test Western unity.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported yesterday, on July 3, that Russia is planning armed provocations against Poland in the coming months. These could include drone strikes or a limited ground incursion. According to the report, the United States shared the intelligence with Warsaw.

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