Russia planning new provocations against NATO, intelligence warns
Illustrative photo: Russia is planning provocations against NATO (Getty Images)
What is known about the escalation threat
As the outlet reported, according to intelligence sources, Moscow is planning actions that will not escalate into a full-scale attack but will pose a serious challenge to the Allies. In particular, Latvian intelligence has already detected signs of preparations for such actions against the Baltic states or Poland.
A senior political source in another NATO country confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin may try to test the United States' readiness to defend the Alliance's smallest members — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
This comes amid the difficulties the Russian army is facing during its invasion of Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also officially confirmed the Allies' concerns following the Eastern Flank summit in Gdańsk.
"We also share, without exception, the opinion that the situation is very unstable and various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months. We will want to prepare as a group of countries directly exposed to this risk," Tusk said.
Possible forms of Russian attacks
Analysts note that due to a lack of forces to open a second front, the Kremlin is leaning toward hybrid scenarios. Latvian intelligence services believe Russia could use missiles or drones in an attempt to force the West to stop supporting Ukraine.
Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the Chatham House think tank, believes Moscow will look for ways to change the dynamics of the war by horizontally escalating the conflict to other countries.
Western military officials link the Kremlin's nervousness to successful Ukrainian drone strikes on facilities near Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Russian threats and preparations for provocations
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski recently said that Russia is preparing a "false flag" provocation to justify new aggression.
According to him, the Kremlin is creating an information pretext for an operation by its own intelligence services in order to obtain a justification for new strikes. Poland's top diplomat compared such actions by Moscow to the Nazi-staged Gleiwitz incident in 1939 before the invasion of Poland.
Earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also pointed to the Kremlin's destructive behavior.
In particular, he revealed Putin's main concern regarding the NATO summit in Ankara, noting that the Russian leader is most worried about Alliance members fulfilling concrete defense spending commitments and significantly increasing support for Ukraine.
