ISW provides facts about war in Ukraine and Western aid

The experts' report presented some facts about Ukraine, covering both the situation on the frontlines and political matters, including the negotiation process. It also included data about infrastructure damage, losses among the military, and civilian casualties amid Russia's full-scale military aggression.

The ISW article also discusses the assistance provided to Ukraine by the US and European countries.

This report by American analysts came after a series of harsh statements made by US President Donald Trump toward his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including several contradictory remarks regarding Ukraine, the war, US support, readiness to engage with Russia, and more.

Although the ISW does not directly mention these recent controversial statements from the White House, the article includes fact-checking as of February 21, 2025, which essentially refutes Trump's claims.

"Zelenskyy is not at risk of losing all of Ukraine right away"

ISW experts note that Russian forces currently occupy about 20% of Ukraine's territory. At the current pace of advancement, it would take them over 83 years to capture the remaining 80% of the country, according to analysts, and this is assuming that the Russian army could suffer enormous casualties indefinitely.

Experts also point out that the pace of Russian forces' advance has significantly slowed in the past three months. At the same time, the occupiers are achieving insignificant territorial gains at the cost of heavy personnel losses.

As calculated by ISW, Russian invaders advanced at an average rate of 27.94 square kilometers per day in November 2024, 18.1 square kilometers per day in December 2024, and 16.1 square kilometers per day in January of the current year.

"Most Ukrainian cities have not been destroyed"

"Many of Ukraine's largest cities, including Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, and Odesa, have avoided destruction and continue to function. Russia leveled some Ukrainian cities during its attack and occupation, such as Mariupol," the article by ISW experts states.

The remaining cities, located in the 80% of Ukraine's territory that has not been occupied by Russia, have remained mostly untouched, except for intentional Russian strikes on critical and civilian infrastructure.

"Ukrainian legislation prohibits elections during wartime (unlike the US Constitution, which requires them)"

ISW reminded that Ukraine's Constitution prohibits the government from conducting elections or making constitutional changes during a state of martial law, which was declared after Russia began its illegal large-scale invasion.

Thus, the American experts note, that the Ukrainian government cannot constitutionally suspend martial law while Russia continues to attack Ukraine.

"Ukrainian opposition politicians, including those who have historically run against Zelensky, have stated that holding elections under martial law would be both illegal and immoral," the article reads.

"Ukraine has not suffered million losses"

According to any credible assessment, Ukraine has not suffered millions of losses, both among civilians and military personnel, ISW experts note.

Analysts reminded that on February 16, President Zelenskyy stated that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, and over 390,000 military personnel had been wounded.

"US officials have placed the number of Ukrainian military losses between 60,000 and 70,000, but no reputable source places casualty estimates near or in the millions," the ISW article states.

The UN confirmed that by the end of 2024, Russia had killed over 12,000 Ukrainian civilians, the analysts added.

"Europe provides Ukraine with direct aid approximately as much as the US"

Europe (including EU member states and EU institutions, as well as Norway and the UK) has surpassed the US in cumulative direct (military and non-military) aid allocated to Ukraine (excluding the costs of forward-deployed US forces in Eastern Europe), according to ISW.

Thus, Europe has provided a total of $166 billion in aid to Ukraine and has promised an additional $34.7 billion by 2030.

Overall, European countries have provided and promised to allocate approximately $204.1 billion - over $174 billion from the EU, $13.9 billion from Norway, and $16.2 billion from the UK - compared to $183 billion from the US.

"These figures do not include the EU and G7 commitments to provide loans to Ukraine financed by income generated from frozen Russian assets," experts note.

Furthermore, ISW added that the EU has provided Ukraine with $20 billion in loans, which are backed by extraordinary income from immobilized Russian sovereign assets, not from Ukraine.

The ISW also points out that the EU holds approximately $220.5 billion in frozen Russian assets.

The EU has already provided Ukraine with $1.6 billion from frozen Russian assets and allocated $3.2 billion in loans in January 2025.

"Ukraine has not misused or lost half of the aid provided by the US"

Most of the funds allocated by the United States for Ukraine remain in the US to finance the domestic military-industrial base and replenish American reserves, ISW experts note.

US government agencies carefully monitor the remaining American aid directly provided to Ukraine. On January 11 of the previous year, the US Department of Defense's Office of the Inspector General reported that no evidence of misuse of aid was found.

"Ukraine repeatedly invited Putin to negotiations in early 2022"

"Zelenskyy proposed to meet with Putin on February 19, 2022 — just five days before Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Putin ignored this request and invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022," analysts reported.

ISW experts also noted that in March 2022, Zelenskyy called for direct negotiations with Putin in any format and proposed a compromise regarding Ukraine's NATO membership. However, the Russians demanded Ukraine's complete capitulation and demilitarization.

"Zelenskyy also expressed openness to discussing the status of occupied Ukrainian territories on the condition that the Ukrainian people would ratify any deal through a referendum.[22] Putin rejected that offer as well," the Institute for the Study of War wrote.

Trump's sharp statements about Zelensky and threats to Ukraine

After the Ukrainian side refused to sign the proposed agreement with the US regarding rare earths and following a meeting of Washington and Moscow delegations in Saudi Arabia for negotiations, US President Donald Trump began using rhetoric that closely resembled Russian propaganda.

He also made critical remarks about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and started issuing threats to Ukraine.

For example, on February 19, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that Ukraine was not holding presidential elections during the war, calling Zelenskyy a dictator without elections.

Moreover, the US president claims that the US allegedly spent $200 billion more on aid to Ukraine than Europe and that about half of the money provided by the US seems to have disappeared.

Trump also repeatedly stated that Ukraine is ruined, and millions of people have died.

On February 21, the US president acknowledged that Russia was responsible for the war but also shifted some of the blame onto Zelenskyy and former US president Joe Biden. Furthermore, in Trump's view, Putin could have captured all of Ukraine but allegedly wants to negotiate a peace deal.

Additionally, the US president threatened that Ukraine would face many problems if Kyiv did not sign an agreement with Washington allowing the US access to Ukrainian mineral resources.