ISW explores Russia's possible strategies as advance intensifies

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that Russian forces had captured Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Illinka, and possibly Romanivka (all to the northeast of Vuhledar along the C051104 highway).

Geolocation footage released on November 24 points to recent Russian advances to the eastern outskirts of Yelyzavetivka.

Additional geolocation footage published on November 24 shows that Russian forces have recently advanced to the central part of the village of Trudove, located north of Vuhledar.

The ISW also confirmed Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka. Geolocation data released on November 23 and 24 indicates that Russian forces have recently advanced south of Rozdolne (northeast of Velyka Novosilka) and to the western outskirts of Novodarivka (southwest of Velyka Novosilka).

Photo: Assessed control of terrain in the western Donetsk region as of November 24, 2024 (ISW map)

"Russian forces have significantly increased the tempo of their advances in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka directions since September 1, 2024, having gained at least 1,103 square kilometers in these areas since September 1, 2024. Russian forces, in contrast, only gained 387 square kilometers in all of 2023 due to Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive," the ISW stated.

Reason for the advance

The ISW noted that the recent Russian advances in southeastern Ukraine since the autumn of 2024 are largely a result of identifying and tactically exploiting vulnerabilities in Ukrainian positions.

Since autumn 2024, Russian forces have been making gradual tactical progress in southeastern Ukraine. Russian troops have been unable to restore the operational maneuver seen in the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

While the current Russian tactical advance is faster than the positional warfare that characterized much of 2023 and early 2024, it still lags behind the pace of Russian advances in March 2022.

"Russian forces have succeeded in taking advantage of the seizure of Vuhledar for further offensive operations in the western Donetsk region, contrary to an incorrect previous ISW assessment that forecasted otherwise," the ISW noted.

Given the current situation, ISW suggests the following potential actions that the Russian command may consider in light of the recent advances by Russian forces.

Option 1

Russian forces are advancing southwest, east, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka to encircle the settlement from the flanks, bypassing the area directly south of Velyka Novosilka.

The ISW recalled that on November 4, Russian forces captured Shakhtarske (northeast of Velyka Novosilka). Since then, the Institute has observed confirmation that Russian troops have advanced west and northwest of this settlement.

Recently, ISW also observed confirmation that Russian forces have advanced to the eastern outskirts of Rozdolne (northeast of Velyka Novosilka and northwest of Shakhtarske).

Russian forces are also advancing further southwest of Velyka Novosilka, having recently captured Rivnopil and advanced near Novodarivka.

"Russian forces are confirmed to be within five kilometers northeast and 2.5 kilometers southeast of Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces appear to be trying to bypass Velyka Novosilka and the string of settlements south of the settlement as Ukrainian forces likely have better-prepared defenses in these areas," the ISW stated.

ISW also pointed out that Russian forces' potential future capture of Rozdolne and further advances north and northeast of the Novodarivka-Rivnopil line will continue to threaten the defense of Ukrainian forces near Velyka Novosilka.

Russian military command is likely intent on continuing pressure on the southwest and eastern flanks of Velyka Novosilka to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the area without engaging in direct frontal assaults on the settlement. This shows how Russian forces attempt to identify and exploit vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defense lines for a gradual, increasingly threatening advance.

Additionally, Russian forces threaten ground lines of communication that sustain Ukrainian defense in Velyka Novosilka.

"ISW assesses that Russian forces are less than three kilometers from the T0518 highway that runs north from Velyka Novosilka to the H15 highway, which itself serves as a major GLOC for Ukrainian forces in and near Kurakhove. ISW also assesses that Russian forces are less than four kilometers from the O0510 highway that runs west from Velyka Novosilka to Huliaipole. Continued Russian pressure on these Ukrainian GLOCs will likely threaten the sustainability of the Ukrainian defense in Velyka Novosilka," the ISW stated.

Option 2

Russian forces are advancing toward Andriivka (along the H15 highway and west of Kurakhove) from the south to support Russian efforts to close Ukrainian "pockets" near Kurakhove and align the front line.

Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets and Russian military bloggers have recently identified that the Russian military command is likely attempting to advance toward Andriivka from the Rozdolne–Maksymivka line.

Currently, Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces in pockets north of Kurakhove Reservoir and near several settlements northeast of Vuhledar along the C051104 highway.

ISW notes that Russia's potential capture of Andriivka would create favorable conditions for Russian forces to simultaneously encircle these two Ukrainian pockets. Further Russian advances south and southwest of Sontsivka (northeast of Andriivka) would also support Russian efforts to encircle a larger Ukrainian force from Andriivka.

"The seizure of Andriivka would also allow Russian forces to increasingly level the flank from Rozdolne to the H15 highway - benefiting ongoing Russian efforts to level the frontline between Selydove and Rozdolne so as to enable renewed Russian offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk in 2025," the Institute for the Study of War stated.

Option 3

Russian forces are advancing west and southwest of Selidove along the Pustynka-Sontsivka line toward Andriivka to destroy the Ukrainian "pocket" north of Kurakhove and threaten Ukrainian retreat routes. Russian forces continue to advance west and southwest after capturing Selydove on October 30.

Russian forces are advancing southwest of Selydove toward Novodmytrivka, Zoria, and Sontsivka to encircle Ukrainian forces defending the area north of Kurakhove Reservoir (north of Kurakhove).

The potential Russian offensive on Andriivka from the south, as described in Option 2, would significantly restrict Ukrainian retreat routes from the area north of the reservoir and northeast of Vuhledar along the C051104 highway. Russian advances to Andriivka could force Ukrainian forces in these pockets to retreat along a narrow exit route to the northwest toward Bohdanivka.

ISW believes that the Russian advance west and northwest of Selydove toward Zhovte, Pushkyne, and Zoria could threaten this potential Ukrainian retreat to Bohdanivka.

"Should Ukrainian forces be able to withdraw from the pockets near Kurakhove and Vuhledar before Russian forces are able to advance to Andriivka, Russian advances southwest and west of Selydove would still help to level the flank along the Shakhtarsk-Zhovte line to enable the renewal of Russian offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk," the ISW stated.

Frontline situation and drone attacks

On the evening of Sunday, November 24, Russian forces launched a large-scale drone attack on Ukraine using Shahed drones.

Later, powerful explosions were heard in Zaporizhzhia and the surrounding region. In the regional center, a 16-year-old girl was injured as a result of the drone attack.

Ukrainian air defense forces also downed enemy drones in Kyiv. Several districts of the capital reported debris falling.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, approximately 200 combat engagements were recorded on the frontline over the past day. Russian forces are putting the most pressure on two directions in the Donetsk region.