Hungary's Orbán threatens to cut gas to Ukraine: Analyst explains fallout
Photo: Hungary threatens a gas blockade (Getty Images)
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán states that he will cut off gas supplies to Ukraine until oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline resumes. However, Hungary is not Ukraine’s main gas supplier, according to Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy and infrastructure programs at the Razumkov Center.
Key points:
- Orbán’s statement contradicts the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement
- Less than 20% of Ukraine’s gas imports come through Hungary
- The main transit partners are Poland and Slovakia
- Ukraine can manage without Hungarian gas until the elections in Hungary
How much gas Ukraine received through Hungary
Hungary is far from being Ukraine’s main gas partner. According to Omelchenko, less than 20% of total imports came through the country.
The main transit routes are Poland and Slovakia.
"There are absolutely no problems today," the expert states.
At the same time, Ukraine currently imports very little gas overall, so even this share is not critical.
When asked whether we could replace gas supplies from other countries, he replied: "We don’t need to replace anything, because we’re currently using very little gas."
According to him, until April 12, election day in Hungary, the country can easily manage without Hungarian transit.
What’s at stake for Orbán
Omelchenko emphasizes: the Hungarian Prime Minister’s statement contradicts the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, which guarantees the free transit of energy resources between the states.
"These statements are completely illegal. If Hungary actually blocks the gas, Ukraine can take the matter to court," he notes. "Hungary could face a hefty fine."
Orbán playing on voters’ nerves
According to the expert, Orbán’s real goal is domestic politics. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is significantly lower than that of his rival, the Magyar's Party. That is why he is trying to portray Ukraine as an enemy to rally voters behind him.
"This is simply part of the election campaign. We shouldn’t panic or react in any way," Omelchenko emphasizes.
According to him, Orbán is counting on Ukraine to respond with harsh statements, and this will give him a reason to escalate the conflict further.
"Just wait until the elections, and then act depending on the situation," the expert adds.
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