Europe will send Patriot systems to Ukraine, but on one condition
Photo: Patriots headed to Ukraine under US guarantees (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
The United States and European countries are negotiating a deal to supply Ukraine with additional Patriot air defense systems. Under the proposed arrangement, NATO allies would hand over their existing systems to Kyiv, while receiving new replacements from the US on an expedited basis, according to Euractiv.
Europe demands guarantees from Washington
Several countries, including Germany, are demanding written guarantees from the US that new systems will arrive within eight months. Without that, allies fear they could be left with critical gaps in their own defenses.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the country needs 10 additional Patriot batteries. Currently, Ukraine has six, provided by the US, Germany, Romania, and the Netherlands.
Germany has already delivered three systems and agreed to send five more. However, due to the need to protect NATO's eastern flank, Berlin has no more than six left in its arsenal. Further transfers are only possible if new systems arrive from the US.
Supply can't meet demand
Production of US-made Patriots is struggling to keep up with global demand. One battery costs around $1 billion, and each missile about $4 million. Delivery wait times currently range from two to seven years.
Defense giants Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are ramping up missile production, from 500 to 650 units per year. Raytheon plans to increase production of the GEM-T missile by 150% by 2028 and invest nearly $1 billion in supply chains and production capacity expansion.
Who in Europe can send Patriots to Ukraine?
European operators of the Patriot system include Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, and Spain. All have limited stocks, and several have already sent systems to Ukraine. Altogether, they collectively hold roughly two dozen batteries.
The US is evaluating which countries should get replacement systems first. "Decisions here lie with the president of the United States," said Trevor Taylor, a fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Without faster deliveries, allies say they cannot commit to further transfers.
Ukraine is priority, but timelines remain uncertain
According to a Raytheon spokesperson, the company is facing the same bottlenecks as other defense manufacturers, namely, shortages of critical materials and explosive components.
Some orders, such as Romania's, have already been delayed by years. If the proposed transfer scheme is implemented successfully, Ukraine could receive more systems, but only if the US acts quickly and scales up production.
Germany plans to send additional Patriot systems to Ukraine in stages. In the coming days, the Bundeswehr will deliver launchers, followed by other key system components over the next two to three months.
The German defense minister said Berlin is ready to send two full Patriot systems, but stressed this would only be possible if they are replaced quickly.
