Britain and France prepare security guarantees plan for Ukraine - Bloomberg

The UK and France are working on a plan to provide Ukraine with security guarantees amid Moscow's demands for a significant reduction of the Ukrainian army as part of any settlement to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

On Wednesday, talks were held in Paris between the defense ministers of France, the UK, Germany, Italy, and Poland to coordinate support for Ukraine.

As French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said at a press conference alongside his European counterparts, there is "a broad consensus" that the first security guarantee for Ukraine is its own army, its capabilities, weapons, and training.

“Long-lasting security guarantees will depend on the capacities we’ll be able to provide Ukraine,” Lecornu said.

He also warned that Europe needs to rapidly develop its space technologies and reduce its reliance on Starlink, the satellite network owned by US billionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius welcomed the US announcement of continued military support for Ukraine. However, he noted that Europe could replace certain assistance and services provided by the US, including "Starlink."

“We can step in rapidly for example with ammunition but also with satellite communication, if this should be needed,” Pistorius told reporters.

UK Defense Secretary Jonny Gilligan stated on March 12 that defense ministers from various countries would meet again next week to continue discussions on "military planning" in case of a settlement.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are negotiating with 37 countries to create a "coalition of the willing" for Ukraine if a peace settlement is reached.

"It would see nations across Europe, the Commonwealth, and Asia contribute either funding, troops, aircraft, or naval vessels to help protect Ukraine from the prospect of further Russian aggression," the news agency reports.

On Tuesday, representatives from non-NATO countries, including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand, joined talks in Paris with military leaders from dozens of European countries, as well as Canada.

Security guarantees

British officials told Western media that the proposed “reassurance force” they are seeking to unite is an important security guarantee for Ukraine. They believe that any attempts by Russia to block this process by NATO member countries would be a deliberate attempt to undermine the prospects of lasting peace.

Each country was asked what they are willing to contribute to the coalition, and those who excluded sending troops to Ukraine were asked if they would be open to having ground forces stationed in neighboring European countries and what other contributions they could make, including sending ships, planes, tanks, and providing intelligence.

Defense officials from European countries believe that the deployment of European troops in Ukraine is an integral part of a strong, long-term peaceful solution.

At the same time, Russia has already stated that it will not agree to the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Lavrov, quoted by the Kremlin's propaganda agency TASS, the presence of NATO forces in any capacity in Ukraine "is a threat" to Russia.

Military leaders will provide Starmer and Macron with more detailed options for peacekeeping forces in the coming days. These will be discussed with other Western leaders during a phone call this weekend.

Then, the plan will be presented to Trump, whom they hope will be convinced to take on the security guarantees from the US in the form of air forces, intelligence, and surveillance abroad, without deploying American troops to peacekeeping forces.

Additionally, the UK and France do not want the US to concede to Vladimir Putin's demands to demilitarize Ukraine and force President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to hold elections before a permanent peace agreement is reached.

As Starmer stated on Wednesday, the issue of Ukrainian children abducted by Russian invaders should also be addressed within the framework of the settlement.

Officials believe that the agreement between the US and Ukraine on a 30-day ceasefire, combined with the development of plans for peacekeeping forces, has increased pressure on Russia to make its own concessions.

"There are strong concerns that Russia will reject a peace settlement and use the ceasefire period to re-arm and launch further attacks on Ukraine, the people cautioned," Bloomberg warns.

During the March 11 meeting in Saudi Arabia, the US proposed a ceasefire across the entire territory, which Ukraine agreed to. Now, it is expected how Russia will react to the ceasefire. Earlier, US Secretary of State Mark Rubio stated that the US would contact Russia regarding the ceasefire with Ukraine.

Kremlin might use Ukraine's agreement to the ceasefire proposal to gain preemptive concessions during peace negotiations. Specifically, Putin might try to exclude Ukraine from the talks to negotiate only with the US.

Recently, The Washington Post reported that the European intelligence agency received a document detailing Russia's maximalist demands and hardline stance regarding the possible cessation of the war against Ukraine.