Russia to pressure US to reevaluate ceasefire agreement with Ukraine – ISW
Photo: Donald Trump, President of the United States and Vladimir Putin, Russian President (Getty Images)
The Kremlin may use the ceasefire proposal, which Ukraine has agreed to, to gain preemptive concessions in peace talks. In particular, Putin will try to exclude Ukraine from the negotiations and only conduct talks with the United States, according to the report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
High-ranking Russian sources told Reuters on March 12 that the temporary ceasefire agreement must "take into account" Russia's advances on the battlefield and "address [Russia's] concerns."
Sources familiar with the Kremlin's perspective and the situation, speaking to Bloomberg, said that Putin would "stretch the timeline" for the ceasefire agreement. This would allow him to ensure that his conditions "are taken into account."
A Kremlin-related source noted that Russia may demand a halt to arms supplies to Ukraine as a condition for agreeing to the temporary ceasefire. However, the source did not specify whether this would apply to all international arms shipments to Ukraine or only to supplies from specific countries.
"Suspending US or other military assistance to Ukraine during a ceasefire would be extremely advantageous to Russia, which continues to receive critical supplies and assistance from Iran, North Korea, and the People's Republic of China.[6] Such an enormous concession would also destroy US leverage in future negotiations, in addition to violating the conditions under which Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire in the first place," ISW experts stated.
On Ukraine without Ukraine
Another source close to the Russian presidential administration told the opposition outlet Verstka that the Kremlin would "formally" give a "positive response" to the temporary ceasefire proposal but would also demand "impossible conditions" that Ukraine could not accept.
The source stated that Putin seeks to exclude Ukraine from negotiations so that Russia can negotiate directly with the US while simultaneously "correcting the situation on the front" to strengthen the Kremlin's position in the talks.
The source emphasized that the terms of the temporary ceasefire "must suit Russia" and dismissed as "stupid" the idea that Moscow would agree to a ceasefire while Ukraine continues to receive weapons and financial aid from its partners and allies.
"These leaks may be intentional and part of a Russian negotiating strategy that aims to push the United States to renegotiate its deal with Ukraine on the temporary ceasefire," analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted.
Ceasefire negotiations
After taking office, US President Donald Trump initiated negotiations to secure a ceasefire and end the war in Ukraine.
The first round of talks between US and Russian delegations took place on February 18 in Saudi Arabia, without Ukrainian participation.
Following an intense dispute between Trump and Zelenskyy at the White House on February 28, the US suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, pressuring Kyiv to enter peace negotiations.
On March 11, high-level talks between US and Ukrainian delegations were held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The key outcome was Ukraine’s agreement to a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, contingent on Russia adhering to the same truce.
According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, "the ball is now in Putin’s court."
In the coming days, US Special Representative for Middle East Affairs Steven Witkoff will visit Moscow for negotiations with Russian officials, aiming to secure their approval of the proposed ceasefire with Ukraine.
For more details on the terms of the 30-day ceasefire agreed upon by Ukraine and the US proceed with our in-depth report.
