Will Trump push Russia harder or exit talks? Analyst explains

"Knowing Trump, as much as we can know him, both options are likely. It’s just as possible that Trump could become more active and take concrete steps, as it is that he could say: 'You all don’t want peace, I’m done with this - deal with your problems yourselves,'" the analyst said.

Trump’s disappointment

According to Oleshchuk, Trump's withdrawal from the negotiation process to end the war in Ukraine cannot be ruled out, especially given the recent hints from the President and his inner circle.
"So, predicting all of this is quite difficult. Clearly, Trump is really disappointed in the negotiation process. It has turned out to be very different from what he imagined and from what numerous Russian intermediaries had portrayed to him," Oleshchuk explained.

Talks with Russia

He suggested that Russian officials may have started engaging with Trump as early as his campaign period. It's likely they emphasized that the war was "Biden’s war," which Trump now frequently repeats.

"There was probably a lot of talk that 'this is all because Biden wanted to drag Ukraine into NATO,' and 'we’ll settle things with you quickly, everything will be fine, we just need to stop the war, we need to save face, we’ll freeze everything quickly,' and so on. And Trump, evidently, believed all of it," the expert said.

That’s why, in the analyst’s view, Trump so confidently promised to end the war in a day, a month, or 100 days. But once he faced the reality of dealing with Russia, it became clear he wouldn’t earn any diplomatic triumphs.

The peacemaker’s laurels

"No Nobel Peace Prize is coming his way. Nor any other honors for being some kind of brilliant peacemaker. And that, clearly, is something that deeply disappoints Trump. Because he got into all of this for the laurels, for the glory, to show the world what a great peacemaker he is, what a genius politician and diplomat. But it turns out that, in the end, he either has to continue Biden’s approach and admit that you can’t just strike a deal with Russia," the political analyst added.

According to Oleshchuk, Trump now faces two options: either apply some elements of military and sanctions pressure or retreat from the process in disgrace, saying, "I’m not capable of anything."

A potential disgrace

"Of course, he won’t say that. He’ll claim this is 'Obama’s war,' or 'Biden’s war,' and so on. But he’ll still look disgraceful. And he probably knows that. On the other hand, it’s also unpleasant for him to admit that Biden’s policy, while maybe not perfect, has no real alternatives. So, in short, it’s becoming clear that this whole process brings him nothing but potential disgrace," Oleshchuk added.

It’s obvious that Trump doesn’t like any of this, the analyst continued.

"Because he expected a swift diplomatic victory, laurels and acclaim, and he got none of it. And he probably now realizes he won’t. There will be no diplomatic blitzkriegs. Everything will be difficult, complicated, and will demand major effort," the expert concluded.

Threats from the US

Recently, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the United States may withdraw from the peace process if there is no chance of a quick agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the near future.

Later, US President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States could stop participating in the negotiations if one of the parties impedes peace.

Recently, the US President also said that the next few days will be very important for negotiations to resolve the war in Ukraine. The United States is putting a lot of pressure on Russia to conclude a peace deal.

However, according to the Financial Times, there are growing concerns in Europe that Trump will soon withdraw from the peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow, using minimal progress as an excuse.