Russia expected to stall ahead of possible Trump–Putin–Zelenskyy meeting, analyst says
Putin expected to dodge meeting with Zelenskyy and possibly with Trump (photo: collage by RBC-Ukraine)
Negotiations between the United States and Russia are currently very active. However, when it comes to a trilateral meeting of the leaders, the Russian regime will, as they say, actively dodge it, said political analyst Oleh Saakian.
Saakian suggested that the negotiations are currently taking place at a very high pace. Russia will try to drag out the process: either by not signing anything at all or by signing some kind of "road map" and then delaying its implementation as much as possible.
"Russia's goal now is to dodge, not to fix and execute anything. The United States will most likely insist on signing a starting point and agreeing to a ceasefire, and then we'll deal with everything else," the political analyst noted.
Thus, according to Saakian, the process may drag on for a long time: each "piece" of the peace agreements will be processed and written separately. It is not excluded that, in the meantime, sanctions against Russia will be introduced, but according to the "Indian scenario," with a delay — for example, after the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"And here is the horizon. Trump wins more weeks during which he gives Russia a chance to act constructively and demonstrate that constructiveness. Previously, he could simply say, 'in a few weeks I'll announce what I will do.' But now the domestic electoral situation in the US and Trump's geopolitical position are pressing him. He has to announce, sign, that is, do something — and only then drag things out through delayed implementation," the analyst said.
Chances of a Trump–Putin–Zelenskyy meeting
According to Saakian, a meeting between Trump and Putin could take place as early as next week, even though, at this point, nothing is actually ready for it.
"Is everything prepared for it (the Trump–Putin meeting – ed.)? No. Could it fall through? 100%. Will Russia try to dodge it now by either postponing or blurring the agenda? Absolutely," he said.
As for a trilateral meeting involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the prospects are less promising. Russia will do everything possible to avoid such a scenario.
Putin needs a meeting with Trump, because he really doesn't want to meet with Zelenskyy. Meanwhile, Trump needs a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, since the US president presents himself as a mediator and doesn't want to take responsibility for the outcomes of his peace efforts.
"He wants this to be between Russia and Ukraine, not between Russia and the US. That way, Trump can say: 'It was all them, we just helped them sit at the table and talk — it's not our responsibility,'" Saakian explained.
The political analyst added that at a certain point, the US will begin to push for the meeting, putting pressure on Russia. There is even a possible scenario where there will be a Trump–Putin meeting and, in parallel, a Trump–Zelenskyy meeting. But that would be so-called "shuttle diplomacy", which is not what Trump wants.
"Because Trump needs to show that this is not just his meeting with Putin, which would legitimize him — but a meeting with both Putin and Zelenskyy. Even if not at the same table," Saakian concluded.
Trump–Zelenskyy–Putin meeting: What is known
US President's special envoy Steve Witkoff visited Moscow on August 6, where he held a meeting with Vladimir Putin. Among other topics, they discussed the possibility of organizing a meeting between the leaders. According to media reports, Trump allegedly intends to meet with Putin next week and then arrange a trilateral meeting involving Zelenskyy.
On August 7, Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that Russia and the United States had agreed to hold a Trump–Putin meeting in the coming days and had already selected a location. Putin himself said that such a meeting could take place in the UAE.
At the same time, Trump's favored newspaper, the New York Post, reported that the US president would only meet with Putin if he agrees to a meeting with Zelenskyy. Otherwise, no meetings will take place.
