Expert warns of worst-case scenario for potential attacks on Ukrainian nuclear power plants
Illustrative photo
Russia has already launched hybrid attacks on Ukraine's nuclear energy sector, including drone strikes in 2022 and 2024, said Volodymyr Omelchenko, the director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine's YouTube channel.
He reminded that Russia attacked Ukraine's nuclear energy infrastructure on November 23, 2022, and again on August 26 this year. These attacks targeted substations of the transmission system operator, which are responsible for distributing power from nuclear plants. According to him, this was an attack on a nuclear facility, significantly more dangerous than targeting the plant itself or an open distribution point.
"It's clear that no one would shell the reactors themselves; that would be pointless, as they are nearly impossible to destroy due to their heavy protection. Attacking open distribution points is not as dangerous as striking the substations of the transmission system operator," he explained.
According to the expert, if an open distribution point at a nuclear plant is damaged, the automation system knows how to respond: it triggers and shuts down the unit, putting it into a hot shutdown state. However, if a strike occurs, like the one on August 26 against the substation, the situation becomes much more complex. This is an unscheduled mode that can very likely lead to a serious nuclear incident.
"The worst-case scenario is when it (the plant - ed.) shuts down, resulting in a nuclear incident. At that point, the facility enters an unplanned mode, which is very difficult to manage," he explained.
Omelchenko also recalled the incident at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in the US in 1979, where an accident occurred in the second reactor due to a combination of technical malfunctions and operator errors. The primary cause was a failure in the reactor cooling system, leading to a partial meltdown of the reactor core. Alternatively, an incident similar to the Chornobyl disaster could occur.
"All of this is possible, and the Russians are deliberately preparing a hybrid strike against the nuclear plant. The potential consequences could include the destruction of the reactor zone with all possible consequences. I'm not saying it will happen 100%, but the possibility exists, and they are targeting the most vulnerable points, as there’s no point in striking the reactor itself," the expert stated.
He noted that while attacking open distribution points is not as dangerous, the main threat comes from strikes on the substations of the transmission system operator. This is because such strikes create an atypical mode that is very challenging for operators to manage.
Background
Today, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that Russia has been using Chinese satellites to photograph Ukrainian nuclear power plants. According to him, this might be part of preparations for possible strikes on these facilities.
Russian drones flying near Ukrainian nuclear plants
Over the past month, around 100 Russian drones and missiles have repeatedly approached Ukrainian nuclear power plants, posing a deadly risk not only to Ukraine but to all of Europe.
Recently, a Russian drone flew dangerously close to the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant.
Additionally, since October 2022, Ukraine's energy system has been subjected to more than a thousand enemy strikes. These attacks have caused significant damage to energy infrastructure and greatly complicated the functioning of the entire energy grid.
