Could war end in 2025 as Zelenskyy suggested? Expert opinion
Photo: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy (president.gov.ua)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the situation on the battlefield provides an opportunity to take measures that could end the war no later than 2025. However, the key point is not just the phrase "end of the war," but how exactly it will happen, stated military expert Oleksii Hetman in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
What did Zelenskyy say about the possibility of ending the war in 2025
The Ukrainian leader made a statement about the possibility of ending the war no later than 2025 during the Ukraine - South-East Europe summit in Croatia.
"In October, November, and December, we have a real chance to move things toward peace and lasting stability. The situation on the battlefield creates an opportunity to make this choice – a choice for decisive action to end the war no later than in 2025," he said.
According to him, the Peace Framework document, which will outline detailed conditions for a just end to the war, is expected to be ready by November. He noted that Russia avoids honest diplomacy, which is why Ukraine has developed an action plan to bridge the gap between the current situation and the successful holding of a Peace Summit.
The President explained that the first point of the victory plan focuses on whether the issue of geopolitical uncertainty in Europe will be resolved. In his view, without this, peace is impossible. Therefore, "real steps towards it are the invitation to NATO and Ukraine's future membership of the Alliance."
Can the war end next year: Expert opinion
As noted by military expert and reserve major of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksii Hetman, it is difficult to definitively say what exactly President Zelenskyy meant by the possibility of ending the war in 2025 based on the battlefield situation. The President receives information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces, so we can only rely on his words.
"I believe he referred to the exhaustion of Russian forces and their unsuccessful offensive actions, despite capturing some of our cities. Considering the losses they suffered and what they had planned, their offensive has largely failed or succeeded only partially," Hetman said.
In addition, according to the expert, discussions between the political leadership of Ukraine and NATO countries about the possibility that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive additional weapons and means of defense most likely enabled the President to say such words.
"But we understand that these words are based on very serious information available to Ukraine's military-political leadership. We can only speculate about the specifics," Hetman emphasized.
He also pointed to various predictions, from analytical assessments by different experts, including foreign ones, to intelligence reports, indicating a possibility that the war might end in 2025. However, the expert stresses that it's unclear how the war will end.
"War doesn’t end in a draw like in sports. It’s either a victory or a defeat. So when we talk about the end of the war, we need to clarify what is meant. Will we regain the 1991 borders? Or the 2022 borders? Will it be a truce? What exactly will it be? Nothing ends without clear terms," Hetman noted.
Thus, the manner in which the war will end is the key issue. The phrase "end of the war" is just the tip of the iceberg; the real question is how and what is meant. That’s what needs to be discussed, he added.
Ukraine's peace plan for a just end to the war
In preparation for the second Peace Summit to be held by the end of this year, Ukraine has developed a victory plan designed to ensure quick decisions by its partners from October to December 2024.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already presented this plan to Joe Biden and US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. As part of his international tour, he presented the document to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer today. He will also show the plan to the leaders of France, Italy and Germany.
The head of state said that he would then present the victory plan in detail to all the leaders of the countries participating in the Ramstein meeting, which was postponed. The date has not yet been determined.
The points of the plan have not been disclosed in detail, but it is known that one of its components is an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO. Ukrainians have not yet seen the plan. As the head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak, explained, the reason for this is the intense presidential campaign in the United States. He promised that the document would be presented to Ukrainians after the presentation to the partners. But only partially, because some details are classified.
In parallel to the government's active diplomatic efforts to establish a just peace, the leading Western media are actively spreading narratives about forcing Ukraine to peace. However, Kyiv officially denies this.
Read more about the peace plan and whether the West is pushing Ukraine to negotiate in the material by RBC-Ukraine.
