Rolling blackouts: Will electricity imports from EU help Ukrainians?

Contents

• What to expect with power outages this fall
• Challenges with increasing electricity imports
• Tusk’s power supply proposal

Ukraine will have to endure strict power supply restrictions for a few more weeks. The main reasons are heat, import limits, generation system repairs, and insufficient energy conservation.

The government's call to "save electricity" by not using air conditioners has failed. RBC-Ukraine's sources in the government report that the effect of forgoing cooling equipment is negligible. So far, energy conservation mainly occurs within government structures. "Meetings in government offices feel like a sauna, but commercial companies have functioning air conditioners," said one source.

However, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expects the rolling blackout situation to improve by the third decade of July. "We anticipate an improvement in the twenties of July. Repairs on some generation facilities will be completed, increasing the power system's capacity. Thus, blackouts will be less prolonged," Shmyhal said earlier this week.

Currently, the maximum power outages for residential consumers can last from 12 to 16 hours a day, assuming four outage schedules. Notably, five schedules have never been implemented simultaneously. If it happens, the power supply could drop to 4 hours a day. If six schedules are needed, almost all residential consumers will be left without power.

According to Ukrenergo, three schedules mean potential rolling blackouts of up to 12 hours; two schedules – up to 8 hours; one schedule – up to 4 hours a day.

What to expect with power outages this fall

By the end of July, major repairs on generation facilities will indeed be completed, reducing the electricity deficit. By September, with the heat subsiding, outages might cease altogether, says Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Center.

But this period will last only a month or two – by November, outages will be unavoidable. This view is shared by experts, government officials, and major Ukrainian energy companies interviewed by RBK-Ukraine.

By late autumn, the situation will complicate again, even if expectations for restoring damaged thermal power plants and installing distributed generation are met.

RBC-Ukraine has previously reported on the prospects of restoring the power system by the end of the year. Improvements could come from launching damaged facilities, installing new gas turbine and gas piston power plants, and increasing electricity imports.

Restoration work on thermal power plants continues, but details on how much generation capacity can be restored by winter are still unavailable. Experts maintain their forecast – even in the best scenario, only up to 2 GW will be restored, while over 9 GW has been lost due to shelling.

Checking power lines in Ukraine (photo: Getty Images)

Projections for distributed generation remain unchanged – 1 GW of new capacity by the end of the year. Sources directly involved in negotiations for acquiring the necessary equipment say this plan is realistic, and current negotiations confirm its feasibility. However, risks remain. "The main thing is that the agreements are not derailed for any reason," said one source.

Challenges with increasing electricity imports

Another potential source to increase electricity volume is imports from EU countries. In December 2023, the import limit increased to 1.7 GW from 1.2 GW. Ukraine now seeks to raise it to at least 2.2 GW. The current restriction is due to technical capabilities – essentially, the availability of transmission lines on the Ukrainian side.

Poland is ready to produce electricity for Ukraine (photo: Getty Images)

Increasing to 2.2 GW or even a bit more is technically feasible – there are enough transmission lines for this. However, further import increases will require building additional interconnectors.

Currently, Ukraine has the greatest technical import capabilities with Hungary. But the decisive role in increasing imports lies not with an individual country, but with the European Commission and the European network of transmission system operators, ENTSO-e. The political issues with the European Commission have been resolved. Now it's up to ENTSO-e to provide technical approval. Detailed discussions with the European operator are underway to increase imports.

In Europe, they carefully study all potential risks of expanding connections with Ukraine, which, after joining the European energy system, is effectively on its eastern flank. Ukraine is a significant energy consumer, and any fluctuations or failures could ripple across Europe, affecting countries as far as Spain and Portugal. ENTSO-e is currently calculating and analyzing all possible disruptions, and developing response schemes for unforeseen situations.

Sources familiar with the negotiations process say there is a possibility of a positive resolution to the import increase issue within the next few months. The limit may exceed the expected volume.

Tusk's power supply proposal

Recently, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed readiness to produce electricity specifically for Ukraine at coal-fired generation facilities. However, he wants the European Commission to waive the CO2 emissions tax for this.

"At this time, we are working on the ability to burn Polish coal, which we currently have a lot, without paying for its burning, i.e. for emissions. and send the electricity produced by Polish power plants from Polish coal for European money to Ukraine through the existing energy bridge," Tusk said.

RBC-Ukraine found that producing electricity specifically for Ukraine is Poland's initiative. Kyiv did not approach Warsaw with such a request. Implementing this idea will undoubtedly help Ukraine, but the additional energy volume will be relatively small. It will fall within the current limit of 1.7 GW, which is already in use but not fully utilized.

"They propose to provide us with emergency assistance – everything within the 1.7 GW limit that we haven't used as imports. Plus, potentially, according to ENTSO-e rules, we could receive another 250 MW as emergency assistance. And they (Poland) would be allowed not to pay environmental taxes on coal generation and have the EU pay for the electricity. This is a very interesting and useful story for us, especially in winter," Kharchenko told RBC-Ukraine.

But Tusk's proposal is extremely beneficial for Poland. First, the European Commission must waive the CO2 emissions tax. Second, Polish miners and energy workers would receive additional orders, and Poland could increase coal usage, which is in surplus due to the warm winter.

"Coal generation prevails in Poland, and they want the plants to operate. This means wages for both energy workers and miners. And it's effectively an indirect financial support of coal generation by the EU. Not only would they exceed the emissions quota, but the EU would also buy and transfer this electricity to us," said a source familiar with Warsaw's initiative. But this is not the only proposal from Poland.

Another option is nearly doubling the capacity of the Rzeszów (Poland) – Khmelnytskyi NPP power line, through which up to 800 MW of electricity can currently be transmitted. This proposal is more promising, but realizing this project will take more time, as additional construction work is necessary. On the other hand, it would immediately add about 800 MW to the limit.

For now, even with increased import capabilities, the heat subsiding, and additional generation capacity, the electricity deficit for winter remains significant. The best that can be done is to reduce this deficit and minimize rolling blackout periods as much as possible.

Sources: public statements from politicians, expert comments, RBC-Ukraine sources, and open data sources.