Putin goes all-in: What's behind Russia's latest nuclear blackmail?
Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)
Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again started threatening Ukraine and the West with nuclear weapons. This time, the Kremlin leader decided to change the nuclear doctrine, expanding the conditions for a nuclear strike by Russia.
What lies behind Putin's statements, and whether they pose a real threat, read in the material by RBC-Ukraine.
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On Wednesday evening, Putin convened the Russian Security Council, where he announced plans to rewrite the nuclear doctrine—a document that defines the grounds for a nuclear strike. He justified his intentions by citing "dynamic changes in the modern military-political situation" and the emergence of "new sources of military threats and risks" for Russia and its allies.
The changes Putin seeks to introduce involve expanding the list of conditions for Russia's use of nuclear weapons. Specifically, aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, if supported or assisted by a nuclear state, would be considered a joint attack.
According to Putin's idea, even "receiving reliable information" about the mass launch of strategic or tactical aviation, missiles, or even drones toward Russia could be grounds for a nuclear strike. This is especially relevant amid regular Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military and defense-industrial targets.
Additionally, Putin threatened a nuclear strike in the event of aggression against Belarus, although such a possibility is already covered by Russia's current nuclear doctrine.
What Putin's nuclear threats mean
This is not the first time Russian leadership has resorted to nuclear blackmail. Since the start of the full-scale war, both Putin and his allies in Moscow have repeatedly threatened the West and Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Over the past three years, Russia has also conducted several drills involving its so-called "nuclear triad." The Kremlin has used nuclear blackmail in an attempt to stop Ukraine’s resistance and prevent Western assistance.
However, possessing nuclear weapons has not shielded Russia from Ukraine’s Kursk operation, which demonstrated that a non-nuclear country can capture territory of a major nuclear power.
According to Oleksii Izhak, an expert on regional security at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Moscow is now facing a problem—the world has stopped fearing nuclear weapons because their use is highly restricted. Current international norms dictate that nuclear weapons can only be used in conflicts between nuclear states. Russia is dissatisfied with this but cannot unilaterally change these rules.
"A situation where nuclear weapons can be used in any way could lead to the whole world becoming nuclear. There are standard 'red lines.' Russia can say whatever it wants, but legitimate 'red lines' are only those agreed upon with other nuclear countries and the world at large," Izhak explained in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Putin announces changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine (photo: Getty Images)
First and foremost, according to Izhak, the Russian President needs approval from his main ally, China. Beijing’s policy on nuclear weapons dictates that their use is only justified in response to a nuclear strike by another nuclear power.
“Why is Russia doing this? Because it cannot use nuclear weapons if it knows that this will not be accepted by other nuclear states. And they don't accept it because using nuclear weapons for colonial wars is not only prohibited but simply unimaginable. This is not why agreements on non-proliferation were made. But Russia does it publicly because it needs at least China's approval,” the expert said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
What is the goal of Russia's nuclear blackmail
Of course, yesterday's nuclear threats from the Kremlin are nothing more than a signal to the West, which for months has been considering allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with American and British missiles, as well as a reaction to the painful attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian military and industrial targets.
This is indicated, in particular, by Putin’s words that aggression from a non-nuclear state, with the support of a nuclear state, will be recognized as a joint attack on Russia. Clearly, this refers to the potential approval of Ukrainian strikes with American ATACMS and Franco-British Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles on Russian territory. And the possibility of a nuclear strike in response to a mass launch of drones and missiles towards Russia references the Ukrainian drone attacks that have already become commonplace in the Russian deep rear.
According to political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, Putin's statement was made on the eve of the meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and the US at the White House, where the main topic of discussion will be the lifting of restrictions on Western long-range weapons.
"Judging by Putin’s statement, Russia clearly fears this. That’s why they issued several warnings, even using 'heavy artillery'—a direct statement from Putin. This is a direct threat to the US, essentially saying that if you allow Ukraine to strike, it would be like declaring nuclear war. It’s a psychological attack on Biden ahead of his meeting with Zelenskyy," Fesenko told RBC-Ukraine's YouTube channel.
However, the effectiveness of Russian nuclear blackmail has long been in question. Putin has threatened the West with nuclear weapons so often that there is now a kind of immunity to it, as recently noted by The Washington Post. Each time the West raised the stakes in its support for Ukraine (first with artillery, then tanks, and now with F-16s), the Kremlin would draw new "red lines." And each time, these "red lines" were crossed without any consequences or Kremlin response.
Therefore, according to Fesenko, there have been other, more practical warnings from Russia. Recently, Reuters reported Moscow’s plans to supply anti-ship missiles to Yemeni Houthis, creating problems for the Western coalition in the Red Sea. Earlier, there was also the threat of resuming nuclear tests in northern Russia.
Putin will not change Russia's nuclear doctrine without China's approval (photo: kremlin.ru)
Currently, the chances that Putin's new nuclear threats will somehow influence the West's decisions regarding Ukrainian strikes on Russia are very low, according to Izhak.
“Let’s say, out of all the factors considered, it’s 1%. This is not even a change in doctrine, it’s simply an attempt by Russia to expand the legitimate framework for using nuclear weapons. But first, Putin needs to receive approval at least from China. The West has already made its decision. If they see that Putin is just trying to scare them, it will not affect their decision, although we still do not know what that decision will be,” he explained.
In an attempt to intimidate Ukraine and the West, the Russian President is practically going all-in, and his statements will have reputational consequences even within Russia, Izhak believes. It is unlikely that Russia will use its nuclear weapons in the event of another Ukrainian drone strike, so the Kremlin will have to find justifications again.
“This could be one of the scenarios. Perhaps the Russian elites are setting Putin up to make him look ridiculous. It’s a difficult situation for him; he has said something he cannot fulfill. This means he’s going all-in. There are no other options to stop the drone strikes and Western approvals,” said the RBC-Ukraine expert.
Ukrainian leadership also believes that Putin is simply blackmailing the world. As the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, wrote in his Telegram channel, Putin has no other tools left to intimidate the world. However, he believes that nuclear blackmail will not work either.
Sources: statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin and head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak, materials from Reuters and The Washington Post, as well as comments from political expert Volodymyr Fesenko and regional security expert from the National Institute for Strategic Studies Oleksii Izhak.
