Lessons from Munich: Trump’s future vision for Europe and path to peace in Ukraine

"We arrived in Munich in a bad mood, but we are leaving in a much better one," several members of the Ukrainian delegation told RBC-Ukraine.

Two reasons influenced the change in sentiment. The first was that the first large-scale personal contact with top representatives of the new US administration was relatively successful. However, the week leading up to it was quite tense.

First, Donald Trump shocked everyone with his call to Putin and subsequent comments on Ukraine, including announcements of new contacts and even full-fledged negotiations with Russia. Adding to the concerns, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth openly stated at NATO headquarters that Ukraine should not expect membership in the Alliance.

Not that anyone had seriously promised Ukraine NATO membership before, but the fact that a top American official was saying such things openly and in a rather aggressive tone was a clear indication that times had changed.

"This is Trump’s negotiation tactic with us – taking an aggressive stance, throwing out ideas, initiatives, and announcements about negotiations: 'Let’s sign this quickly, let’s meet right now and resolve everything,' etc.," an experienced former Ukrainian official told RBC-Ukraine on the sidelines of the Munich Conference.

Beyond Trump’s endless stream of statements, the situation was further aggravated by equally endless "insider reports" from Western media. Both had to be refuted by conference organizers and Zelenskyy himself—for example, claims that US-Ukraine-Russia negotiations would occur in Munich or shortly afterward in Saudi Arabia.

In practical terms, Trump’s pressure manifested in pushing Ukraine to sign a mineral extraction agreement. The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had brought the draft agreement to Kyiv earlier in the week.

The Americans wanted to sign it in Munich, clearly aiming to present it as a success to their domestic audience. The message would be: unlike Biden, we’re not just sending billions to Ukraine; we’re making a profitable deal.

The Ukrainian delegation faced a difficult challenge. On the one hand, they could not yield too much to the Americans, as that would signal weakness and invite further pressure. On the other hand, they needed to handle the situation carefully to avoid damaging relations with the newly forming US administration.

According to RBC-Ukraine, the Americans initially set a condition: a personal meeting between US Vice President JD Vance and Zelenskyy would happen only if Ukraine agreed to sign the extraction agreement beforehand.

In the end, Ukraine managed to remove this condition, and the meeting took place anyway. Several RBC-Ukraine sources indicated that the Ukrainian delegation handled the situation well. Zelenskyy later explained to journalists that the proposed agreement was largely one-sided and did not include obligations or guarantees from the US side. Therefore, it needed revision, but Ukraine did not reject the concept outright.

Zelenskyy and Vance's talks in Munich (Press Service of Ukraine's President)

"We carefully showed our American friends that we have our own position. They handed us a lemon with this agreement, and our task is to turn it into lemonade," a source in the Ukrainian delegation told RBC-Ukraine.

The second reason for the improved mood among Ukrainian representatives in Munich was that Europe, it seems, was starting to "wake up." It took a series of sharp slaps from Trump’s team to make them pay serious attention to European affairs.

First, Hegseth stunned the European audience by stating in Brussels that the US would no longer guarantee Europe’s security. Then, in Munich, Vice President Vance delivered a keynote speech – not about the war in Ukraine, not about the Middle East, nor even about the Chinese threat, but about problems with democracy within Europe itself.

Vance explained as bluntly as possible to the Europeans, who opened their mouths in surprise that their values ​​now diverged greatly from American values. The "veterans" of the Munich conferences unanimously assured RBC-Ukraine afterward that they had never seen Europeans so shocked (the original usually used a harsher word).

While the eastern flank of the EU/NATO and northern countries, along with the UK, have long understood the reality of the situation, "old" continental Europe was caught off guard. The prospect of suddenly finding themselves without the American "security umbrella" deeply unnerved them. As did the realization that the infamous "transatlantic unity" seemingly exists more on paper than in reality.

Speech by US Vice President Vance at the Munich Conference (Photo securityconference.org)

The statements by Vance, Trump, and other US officials became the main topic of discussion, both at official Munich events and behind the scenes.

"It’s Sunday morning, but I feel like we’re at a psychiatrist’s panel. We are trying to calm down, manage our emotions, trying to say that we are not so bad and are doing everything we can. Unfortunately, this is a problem, and maybe it’s part of European culture – we are always reflecting," President of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs said at one of the panel discussions.

In response to the rapidly evolving situation, an emergency summit of European foreign ministers was held on the sidelines of the Munich Conference. Today, a meeting of major European leaders is taking place in Paris, initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron.

The effectiveness of this sudden activity remains to be seen. Predictions vary. "I fear that in a few days, we will relax again and return to our usual routine," Rinkēvičs remarked.

However, the Ukrainian delegation was more optimistic. Sources told RBC-Ukraine that Ukraine advised European allies to avoid escalating tensions with the US and to refrain from overly sharp reactions that could backfire. The British, among others, supported this stance.

Another statement that left European officials and journalists stunned came from Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg: Europe would not have a seat at the negotiating table. His message was essentially: "You Europeans already tried to negotiate, you created the Minsk agreements – and we all see where that led. Now we, the Americans, will negotiate and show you how it’s done."

Keith Kellogg in Munich (Photo pinchukfund.org/)

At the same time, there were no substantive talks about specific points of the peace plan (for example, who will ultimately retain certain territories, etc.) in Munich – this was confirmed to RBC-Ukraine by all interlocutors in the Ukrainian delegation without exception. Rather, there were, in Kellogg's words, "talks about talks" – discussions of possible parameters of a peaceful settlement. Some predictions that a peace agreement would almost be signed in Munich or immediately after it did not come true as expected – that is still quite a long way off.

"The US does not have a concrete peace plan right now – only a 'cloud of ideas,'" one informed source told RBC-Ukraine. One such idea is achieving a ceasefire as soon as possible, with a detailed peace agreement to be worked out later. Kellogg even stated this publicly. However, Ukraine rejects this approach outright, citing past experience – it simply will not work.

For now, Ukraine insists on returning to the borders of February 23, 2022. This issue will likely be discussed at next week's US-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia.

Ukraine will not be present at these negotiations, but this is not necessarily alarming – after all, Russia was not in Munich. In general, Trump and his team cannot develop a concrete peace plan without contact with the Russians. However, the specter of a "deal behind everyone’s back" lingered in the Munich corridors.

For now, Washington and Moscow are exchanging public signals, indicating that behind-the-scenes agreements have not yet materialized (though such attempts were certainly made right after the US elections).

Intense diplomacy will continue in the coming days and weeks, including in Kyiv, where many European and other leaders are expected on February 24 for the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion. It is clear that if Ukraine does not proactively set and promote its own agenda, it will be forced to follow Trump’s. And that is a scenario best avoided.