In Trump's shadow: What to expect from first G20 summit after US elections

The G20 leaders' summit kicks off in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Monday, November 18. For the second time since the full-scale war began, Ukraine has not been invited. Notably, the second day of the summit coincides with a symbolic date for Ukraine - the 1,000th day of resistance.

"It would be appropriate if the topic of Russian aggression against Ukraine were represented at the G20 summit and the President of Ukraine could participate. This would bring peace closer and help set the date and location for the second Peace Summit. We believe that ignoring this symbolic date by the G20 will demonstrate weakness and unwillingness to address global issues," said Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

The Group of Twenty (G20) was established in 1999 as an intergovernmental forum to address economic crises. The G20 includes the world's 19 largest economies and the European Union, with the African Union joining the group this year.

Although G20 member countries account for up to 80% of global trade and represent two-thirds of the planet's population, the group's summits do not produce binding decisions. Instead, G20 summits serve as platforms for meetings among global leaders and discussions on pressing global issues. As such, the topic of Russia's war against Ukraine is likely to take center stage at the upcoming meeting in Rio.

Additionally, the Rio summit follows the US presidential election, in which Republican Donald Trump won. This development is expected to draw the attention of G20 leaders.

Will Russia attend the G20 summit?

Russia, a G20 member, will be represented at the Rio summit, but not at the highest level. Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite being invited by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has decided not to attend. Instead, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will represent the country.

Putin's decision stems from the arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC). The warrant requires any country that has ratified the Rome Statute to arrest Putin if he enters its territory. Brazil is one such country.

Putin opted out of attending the G20 summit in Brazil (Photo: Getty Images)

While Mongolia, another country that has ratified the Rome Statute, set a precedent by not arresting Putin during his visit, Putin has chosen to avoid "politicizing" and "disrupting" the summit by declining to participate.

This marks the third G20 meeting during the ongoing war in Ukraine that Putin will miss. Notably, all three summits have taken place in countries considered friendly to Russia and Putin himself.

Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine?

At the previous G20 summit in Indonesia in 2022, Ukraine's President Zelenskyy presented the Ukrainian peace formula to the leaders of the Group of Twenty. Kyiv considers this formula the only viable platform for ending the war and achieving a just peace with Russia.

However, this year, the G20 summit might become a stage for another peace formula - a Chinese-Brazilian initiative called the "Friends of Peace."

In September, it was revealed that China and Brazil had developed their peace plan, which is essentially presented as an alternative to Ukraine's formula. Instead of ending the war, it proposes freezing the conflict indefinitely, allowing Russia to retain occupied territories.

Ukraine did not appreciate this initiative. President Zelenskyy, in particular, criticized the Chinese-Brazilian plan, stating that those who propose such "peace plans" ignore reality and assist Putin by giving him "political space to continue aggression."

Moreover, at the beginning of November, rumors surfaced in the media about German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's intentions to form a contact group with China, Brazil, and India to conduct peace negotiations with Russia. Scholz’s recent conversation with Putin - the first in nearly two years, focused on peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv - only added weight to these reports. The G20 summit in Rio could become the venue where this matter is discreetly discussed, at least behind the scenes.

China and Brazil have initiated their own peace plan regarding Ukraine (Photo: flickr.com/palaciodoplanalto)

Even if Scholz decides to pursue such initiatives, it is unlikely to be a long-term project, given Germany’s upcoming snap elections. Scholz is unlikely to retain his chancellorship, and his successor may not necessarily share his stance.

Nevertheless, Kyiv hopes its partners will refrain from discussing any plans or agreements behind Ukraine’s back, Minister Sybiha stated last week.

"We expect that any forum, any meeting, will bring us closer to a just peace for Ukraine, based on the principle of 'nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.' We will never accept any initiative developed without Ukraine's involvement," he said.

Biden's meeting with Xi Jinping and more

The G20 Summit in Rio will be the last for Joe Biden as the President of the United States. This provides the leaders of the Group of Twenty a final opportunity to discuss pressing issues face-to-face with him before a new administration takes office in January.

Notably, it is expected that Biden will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit for the last time. Earlier, over the weekend, they held bilateral talks during the APEC Leaders' Meeting in Peru, where topics included North Korea's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine.

The G20 Summit in Brazil marks the first major international meeting following Donald Trump's election victory (Photo: Getty Images)

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is also likely to seize the opportunity to meet with Biden. According to The Telegraph, the discussions could involve allocating $20 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine before Trump’s inauguration.

However, Oleksandr Khara, an expert in foreign and security policy, commented to RBC-Ukraine that Ukraine should not expect concrete results from the G20 summit in Rio.

At most, the G20 leaders may issue statements regarding the war and Ukraine. Yet, as evidenced by the past two G20 summits, a final communiqué condemning Russia is unlikely.

"Everyone is waiting for Trump - what he will do regarding Ukraine, Russia, and, of course, China. If Trump aims to end the war, he will likely need China's support, which could become a bargaining chip for Beijing," Khara noted.

According to the expert, it is improbable that the British Prime Minister or any other European leader will persuade Biden to lift "absurd restrictions" on Ukraine.

"Hopefully, they manage to spend all the funds allocated by Congress and deliver all the weapons, at least to the European continent, to transfer them to us later. One scenario we might face is Trump halting aid and pressuring Ukraine," Khara explained.

In such a case, Khara emphasized, Ukraine would at least have some resources and time to convince Trump to change his stance on the war. However, this would take place under a new administration, with a different president and set of priorities, he concluded.

Sources: Statements by Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, publications by Politico and The Telegraph, and comments by Oleksandr Khara, Deputy Chair of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies.