Will Russia-Ukraine war last until 2025? Military experts' insight
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Hopes that Ukraine will be able to overcome Russian aggression and reclaim all occupied territories quickly are starting to fade. Military experts believe that the combat operations could last at least until 2025.
This is mentioned in the article by RBC-Ukraine titled "'War of forecasts'. How close is Ukraine to victory: What the West and experts say."
It should be noted that no one is forecasting a quick end to the hostilities in Ukraine. Some Western officials and media outlets believe that the war will be protracted.
For instance, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has called for preparing for a prolonged war. CNN reported that there had been statements suggesting the war may last until 2025.
What do experts say about this?
Military-political expert of the Information Resistance Group, Oleksandr Kovalenko, is not surprised by these forecasts, as hopes that the war would end by 2023 were in vain.
He emphasizes that Ukrainian society should understand that there will be no quick victories in the near future.
According to him, Ukraine pays a huge price for liberating each meter of its territory, and to avoid it being too high, it is necessary to take pauses and carefully prepare for the next steps.
"This is what stretches out the whole process. The fact that Ukraine will be liberated to the borders of 1991 is true. But even when it cannot advance, it will conduct defensive actions. Even if not as effectively as a year ago, it still has human resources and equipment that need to be systematically and professionally destroyed. So we must be cautious in our actions, and caution always requires time," he emphasized.
The Russia-Ukraine war will last at least until 2025, according to Oleksandr Musiienko, the head of the Center of Military Law Researches. This is partly because Russia hopes for a change in U.S. policy after the presidential elections.
Therefore, Ukraine has no choice but to develop a counteroffensive strategy for 2024 and defense against Russian attacks.
"But at the same time, I think everything will depend on the results of the counteroffensive by the end of 2023, at which positions we will stop. And on the aid packages we will receive for the spring. Because we need to receive aircraft, long-range missiles, and other types of weaponry that will help us make even greater progress on the front," he noted in his comment to RBC-Ukraine.
It should be noted that Ukraine is expected to receive aircraft, long-range missiles, and other types of weaponry that will aid in achieving further progress on the front lines.
As for the "freezing trend," the freezing of hostilities can only be considered theoretically. Firstly, Russia is not interested in it at this stage, and secondly, Ukraine has declared military-political goals to restore territorial integrity and sovereignty.
At the same time, Musiienko believes that it is possible for the intensity of the conflict to decrease in 2024. This is because time may be needed to accumulate resources, forces, and means for the preparation of the next stages of the operation to liberate territories.
Because the laws of war sometimes require this from both sides. We will need it. Russia will need it too because it cannot sustain a high-intensity war for a long time," the expert added.
Furthermore, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg notes that Russia's war against Ukraine is a war of attrition. He states that the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have demonstrated that the war has not reached a "stalemate."
