When Ukraine will join the EU? Ambassador Mathernová specifies timeline and conditions

Can Ukraine become an EU member by 2030?

Mathernová reminded that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had already mentioned 2030 as a realistic goal. However, she warned that the process would not be easy.

"If the current pace of preparation continues, I think that is still realistic. I want to underline there are going to be problems, delays, and detours on the way. None of this is as disturbing for us insiders, because that's just nature. Yes, it's sometimes messy. It happens," she said.

The Ambassador added that challenges often arise during the EU enlargement process.

"In the case of enlargement, and many other policies as well, it takes a while to get to the consensus. But usually we get there," Mathernová noted.

How is the negotiation pace assessed?

Mathernová believes that Ukraine is actively continuing the technical preparations for joining the European Union.

"We continue quite busily in terms of the reviews and the technical preparations, which is very good. So the time-consuming work and the technically demanding work are ongoing. We are now preparing the first drafts of the next enlargement report that will come out in the fall. And the cluster discussions are taking place, the screening, the preparations for the opening," the diplomat said.

She also emphasized the importance of continuity in this process.

"At the same time, the work on the reforms continues. We are now experiencing a little bit of a delay in the Rada (Verkhovna Rada, Ukrainian Parliament - ed.), but I'm confident that in the next plenary, things will move as well. So that's important that the time-consuming, difficult, and challenging work is there, while at the same time, the political debates continue as well," Mathernová noted.

Ukraine and Moldova may be decoupled on the way to the EU

The Ambassador also commented on the discussions about possibly splitting the EU integration paths of Ukraine and Moldova, and the reaction of the Ukrainian authorities to such suggestions.

"I think that the words of the commissioner were a little bit taken out of context. Because she was not talking about preparations or consideration, but about not being able to rule something out, which is quite far apart. I understand the reaction of the Deputy Prime Minister (Olha Stefanishyna - ed.). If I were in her shoes, would react in a similar way," Mathernová said.

According to her, discussions about EU integration are taking place on multiple levels.

"Discussions are ongoing. Discussions between the EU and Ukraine, Ukraine and Hungary, Hungary and the EU, among the EU member states. All of this is still taking place. We are certainly not at the point of imminent decoupling, certainly not, and I don't think there is any reason to panic," she assured.

The Ambassador emphasized that technically the Ukraine and Moldova decoupling is possible, as each country is assessed individually, but this does not mean the EU has any such plans or intentions.

"One thing I do want to mention is that it will ultimately depend on the member states and unanimity among member states. There's no need to draw the conclusion right now. We are far away from that. As I mentioned many times before, the decision process in the EU is sometimes slow and messy. Ultimately I'm convinced that we will reach a good conclusion vis-a-vis Ukraine," she concluded.

Will Hungary’s veto on opening negotiation clusters be lifted?

The diplomat also commented on the current situation regarding the opening of negotiation clusters within Ukraine’s accession process to the EU. According to her, the goal of opening all six negotiation clusters (which cover 33 out of 35 chapters of the negotiation dossier) remains relevant, particularly in 2025.

"It's hard to speculate on the times when they're closer than even the ultimate entry into the EU, where I did venture with the date of the end of the decade. But I think that we'll just have to see what's going to happen in the next few weeks," the diplomat said.

In response to a question about the possibility of lifting Hungary’s vetoing stance, Mathernová expressed cautious optimism: "I hope so."

Ukraine’s path to the EU membership

Ukraine applied for membership in the European Union in February 2022 — shortly after the full-scale Russian invasion. In June of that same year, the European Council granted Ukraine candidate status.

In November 2023, the European Commission recommended starting accession negotiations. This process officially began on June 25, 2024, during a meeting in Luxembourg.

Meanwhile, Hungary has conducted a public survey to gauge its citizens’ attitudes toward Ukraine’s EU membership.