West issues ultimatum: Will Putin yield and will Ukraine see 30 days of peace?

Takeaways

• What is the May 12 ultimatum presented to Russia?
• What are the timeframes and are there any conditions for a ceasefire?
• How is Putin responding to the West's unified message?
• Will new sanctions scare Putin?
• Where is Putin's weak spot and should we expect a truce in Ukraine?

Talks about 30-day ceasefire in Kyiv

Today in Kyiv, a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing took place with the participation of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British and Polish Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Donald Tusk. The rest of the leaders joined online.

After the meeting, during a press conference, President Volodymyr Zelensky made a loud statement.

"We agreed that starting Monday, May 12, a full and unconditional ceasefire must begin for at least 30 days. We jointly demand this from Russia, and we know the United States supports us," Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy emphasized: an unconditional ceasefire means without any conditions. He essentially rejected the Kremlin's position that a truce is only possible if mobilization and Western arms supplies stop. According to the President, this only further shows Putin's desire to prolong the war.

The 30-day ceasefire must be comprehensive: in the air, at sea, and on land. It will be monitored by the US together with European partners. During this period, diplomacy is expected to work on defining the foundations of lasting peace with Russia. Strong armed forces and a military presence of partners will remain the key elements of security guarantees.

Macron and Starmer also rejected Putin's demands. The French President warned that a sanctions package is already prepared. The UK Prime Minister added: "If Putin does not return to the path of peace, we will respond. Together with President Trump, we will increase our support for Ukraine to force Russia to the negotiating table."

The leaders also had a call with Donald Trump. His Special Envoy, Keith Kellogg, generally confirmed the White House's position: a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire will mark the beginning of ending the war.

Russian side comments on ceasefire

The first to respond to signals from Kyiv was Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev. The Russian high-ranking official published a post with insults directed at European leaders and suggested they should, to put it mildly, "shove those peace plans" far away.

Putin's Spokesperson replied in more diplomatic terms. "Trying to scare us with these sanctions is pointless," said Dmitry Peskov.

According to Peskov, isolating Russia is difficult because "it represents a very large part of the world." As for dialogue with Western leaders, Putin's Spokesperson emphasized that the Russian President is ready to engage with them to the extent that they are ready to do so.

"We hear a lot of contradictory statements from Europe. In general, they tend to be more confrontational rather than aimed at trying to somehow revive our relations," Peskov complained.

Later in the day on CNN, Russia's Spokesperson cynically claimed that Putin was supposedly ready to start peace talks without preconditions. But Peskov then added that Moscow would consider the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.

Why direct negotiations may begin soon

Putin is unlikely to be frightened by the new sanctions and, most likely, will not give the specific answer that Ukraine is hoping for, said Volodymyr Fesenko, Head of the Penta Center of Applied Political Studies

"At most, the Russians may agree to start negotiations," Fesenko noted in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

In his opinion, at best, the Russian side will respond to such a unilateral ceasefire declaration the same way Ukraine responded to the "parade truce" from May 8 to 10. There won't be an official "yes," but there also won't be a clear "no."

"Unofficially, they may partially observe the ceasefire in the air. From a tactical point of view, the optimal option for them is to agree to begin negotiations, so that sanctions aren't imposed. They definitely won't respond positively to a demand, but de facto, they may partially follow the truce. Although it is highly likely that active fighting on the front will continue, at least in some areas," the political scientist said.

The source predicts that negotiations may begin as early as next week. And these would be direct talks between Ukraine and Russia, with the US acting as a mediator. It's not about threats of sanctions.

According to Fesenko, the new sanctions are just a tool. Putin may agree to talks not because he fears a hit to the energy sector or the banking system. He simply finds it more important to preserve the prospect of contact with Trump.

"This prospect is very important to Putin. That's what should be used. The desire to negotiate with Trump is Putin's weak spot," the political scientist added.

Today, Axios reported on the possibility of direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow. According to its information, during a conversation with Trump in the presence of leaders of the Coalition of the Willing, President Zelenskyy confirmed that he is ready for direct talks with Russia, if a 30-day truce is agreed upon. The American President liked this approach.

A knowledgeable RBC-Ukraine source emphasized that the President has always spoken of his readiness for any format of negotiations. And based on their calculations, 30 days are needed for diplomacy to work and for everything to be agreed upon. "If the ceasefire holds, then it will be possible to agree on the place and format," the source said.

As NBC News writes, now Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will bring Putin a list of 22 proposals. Among other things, it includes the 30-day ceasefire and a guarantee from Trump that the US will not support Ukraine’s accession to NATO. The American side believes that if Putin is looking for a way out, this is it. A response is expected after the meeting with Witkoff.

Sources: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, leaders of France, the United Kingdom, and Germany, representatives of the US and Russian administrations, and a comment from Volodymyr Fesenko, Head of the Penta Center of Applied Political Studies.