Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate explains why Russia aims to end war in 2026

So, the Main Intelligence Directorate states that Russia’s strategic documents specify that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026.

According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, Russia set this date due to the enormous economic costs of the war, which currently amount to 42% of the country’s budget and lead to stagnation in key sectors such as metallurgy and mineral extraction.

At the same time, Belarus, according to Skibitskyi, is trying to balance between supporting Russia and maintaining relations with the West; in other words, Lukashenko aims to preserve neutrality.

Russia’s involvement in the war

Russian leadership understands that if the war continues at this length and scale, it will lose the chance to compete with major powers like the US and China.

As a result, Russia risks becoming merely a regional power with limited influence.

Currently, the majority of Russia’s budget is spent on the war, while socio-economic problems, including labor shortages and demographic challenges, deepen the crisis.

Another factor is dependence on oil prices. At $50 per barrel, their Stabilization Fund, which finances the war, could last 18 months; at $30 per barrel, it would only last until the end of the year. Because of this, Russia may be forced to seek a pause or compromise to lift sanctions and stabilize the economy.

Lukashenko’s position on the war in Ukraine

Regarding Belarus, the Main Intelligence Directorate notes that the country is trying to maintain a balance between preserving relations with the West and supporting Russia. Despite its status as Russia’s key ally, Lukashenko aims to avoid being directly drawn into the war and to preserve Belarus’s sovereignty.

This summer, meetings took place between Belarusian and American officials aimed at supporting contacts and trade, especially in the agricultural machinery and fertilizer sectors.

As for the Zapad-2025 military exercises, preparations are proceeding according to plan, but the scale and threat level are significantly lower than in previous years. Russia currently lacks free reserves to deploy large military groups for these exercises, as all troops are engaged on the front against Ukraine.

Trump-Putin meeting

On Friday, August 15, UЫ President Donald Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.

As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, the planned summit is a meeting to clarify positions. Rubio added that sooner or later, everyone will find out whether this approach has a chance of success.

At the same time, Donald Trump has repeatedly said he hopes to negotiate a territorial exchange between Ukraine and Russia with the Russian President. However, he promised he would not make an agreement with Putin regarding Ukraine, as that must be done directly between Kyiv and Moscow.