Ukrainian forces achieve biggest gains since Kursk operation, ISW says
Ukrainian forces launch counterattacks (illustrative photo: Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
Ukrainian forces are seizing the initiative on the battlefield — over the past months, Ukrainian troops have achieved their biggest successes since the incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August 2024, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
What are the results?
According to the analysts, over the past several months, Ukrainian forces have carried out a series of counterattacks across different sections of the front, achieving the most noticeable results since the operation in the Kursk region.
Thus, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to regain a significant part of the territories near Kupiansk, liberated more than 400 square kilometers in the south of the country during the winter and spring of 2026, and also advanced in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region.
ISW emphasizes that Ukrainian counterattacks in the south created cascading operational and strategic consequences for the Russian army's spring-summer offensive against the so-called fortress belt. This forced Russian troops to choose between containing the Ukrainian advance and redeploying forces to priority directions.
In addition, the intensified Ukrainian medium-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, equipment, and manpower since the beginning of 2026 has significantly reduced the ability of Russian forces to conduct offensive operations along the entire front line.
Syrskyi: Ukrainian attacks are outpacing Russian ones
Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on May 15 that precise Ukrainian strikes, the destruction of Russian army reserves, and constant pressure on assault units have allowed Ukrainian forces to increasingly seize the tactical initiative and force the invaders to operate at a pace imposed by Ukraine.
According to him, as of May 14, the number of offensive actions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces exceeded similar activity by Russian troops.
Analysts also note that Ukrainian forces are on track to meet their target indicators regarding Russian army losses in May 2026.
Drones are striking Russian forces
Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Major Robert Brovdi, with call sign Madyar, reported on May 20 that during just the first 19 days of May, Ukrainian drones struck 19,203 Russian servicemen. More than 6,000 of them were hit by strikes carried out by Unmanned Systems Forces units.
He predicts that by the end of the month, Russian army losses from drone strikes alone could exceed 34,000, not including artillery shelling, strikes on rear areas, and other unconfirmed losses.
Russia cannot replenish its losses fast enough
Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense is facing problems replenishing personnel. According to ISW, in the first quarter of 2026, the Russian army signed only 70,500 contracts, which is below the level needed to compensate for losses.
Analysts believe that Ukrainian forces will continue expanding medium-range strikes and carrying out counterattacks in vulnerable sectors of the front, which will further complicate the offensive capabilities of the Russian army.
During the counteroffensive in the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian troops liberated nine settlements from Russian forces and fully cleared three more of enemy presence.
It also became known that Ukrainian forces fully control Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, despite attempts by Russian units to infiltrate the city in small groups.
