Ukraine retakes more ground than Russia captures in May, new ISW data shows
Photo: In May, Ukraine liberated more territory than Russia seized (Getty Images)
The effectiveness of Russia’s offensive campaign is declining, despite the use of various mapping methods to analyze the battlefield situation. In May, Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than Russian troops managed to seize, reports the Institute for the Study of War.
In April, Russian troops seized or penetrated approximately 28 square kilometers of territory but lost control of about 116 square kilometers.
At the same time, ISW noted that some of Russia’s advances were merely temporary penetrations into Ukrainian positions.
Areas where Russian forces, sometimes in very small groups of just a few soldiers, infiltrated and maintain a limited presence are not controlled by Russia in the doctrinal sense.
The current combat situation, namely the frequent shifts in Ukrainian and Russian positions and the expanding drone strike zone, complicates precise calculations of gains and losses.
Although sources use different counting methodologies, they nevertheless reach similar overall conclusions regarding Russian and Ukrainian advances on the battlefield.
ISW noted that against this backdrop, Kremlin officials continue to reject any negotiated settlement that does not address the “root causes” of the war in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a video address marking Russian language day that restoring the rights of Russians and Russian-speaking people in Ukraine “is a necessary condition for a long-term peaceful settlement.”
“The Kremlin’s continued commitment to Russia’s original war aims comes as Russia’s battlefield performance has been dwindling and Russian advances have been slowing, however,” analysts said.
Russia’s offensive has failed
Russia’s offensive has slowed to its lowest pace in the past year. Its losses are reaching record levels: around 35,000 troops are killed or seriously wounded every month, while contract recruitment is barely enough to fill the gap.
The cost of every kilometer of advance has risen sharply. While Russia deployed 67 soldiers per square kilometer of captured territory in the fall of last year, the figure rose to 179 per square kilometer in April. In May, it increased even further.
Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin delivered another round of misleading claims about the war in Ukraine. According to him, Russian forces are allegedly advancing on the frontline every day.
Recently, Estonia’s intelligence said Putin has less and less time to impose his terms on Ukraine in the war. The frontline situation has reached a stalemate, while economic and social problems inside Russia are intensifying.
The head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Russia cannot achieve its original objectives in the war against Ukraine. He added that the aggressor state is therefore lowering the bar and putting forward new demands.
The Financial Times recently reported that the Russian military command had promised Vladimir Putin it would capture the Donbas by fall. Commanders reportedly tell him that the Ukrainian army is exhausted, the frontline is collapsing, and Ukraine’s forces are dwindling.
Bloomberg reported that some senior Kremlin officials acknowledge that the war against Ukraine has reached a deadlock. They also see no safe way out for the regime.
