Ukraine official speaks out on possible new mobilization in Russia
Deputy Head of the Office of the President Pavlo Palisa (photo: Pavlo Palisa's Facebook)
Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a covert mobilization has been underway in Russia; however, an open draft would require a specific rationale capable of uniting society, says Deputy Head of the Office of the President, Brigadier General Pavlo Palisa, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
Speaking about the possibility of a new wave of mobilization in Russia, Palisa notes that throughout this entire period, the Russians have continued to draft reservists and specialized professionals into the army.
"Throughout the entire period of the full-scale invasion, the Russians have been conducting a covert mobilization... That is, it has, in essence, never stopped," he explains.
At the same time, he said, for mobilization in the classical sense, open and with an official announcement, many factors are necessary, the key one being an idea that unites society.
"The most important thing, in my view, is an idea that must unite society and justify the need for such actions," the general says.
Propaganda is not having desired effect
Palisa expresses doubt that possible provocations or other events, such as terrorist attacks, could serve as such a unifying factor on the necessary scale.
According to him, current propaganda narratives are also failing to produce the expected effect to justify a new wave of mobilization.
"I think right now it’s not having enough of an effect, not the one they’re expecting to justify mobilization," he adds.
Separately, he notes the tightening of controls in Russia, particularly on social media, which could indicate both preparations for certain decisions and an attempt to keep the situation within the country under control.
"It seems to me that this is, first and foremost, to keep the situation under general control within the country," Palisa notes.
Open mobilization requires a compelling rationale
At the same time, he does not rule out that such actions could be part of preparations, but emphasizes that he currently does not see a compelling rationale that could unite society in support of an open mobilization.
"They need a compelling rationale that would suddenly and strongly unite society and justify such decisions by the authorities. I don’t see it yet," he concludes.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian authorities have launched a covert forced mobilization amid sky-high losses of their soldiers in the war and a sharp decline in the rate of recruit intake.
At the same time, former Russian President and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev recently stated that there was no need whatsoever for a new wave of mobilization in Russia.
