Russia launches covert forced mobilization: ISW reveals new Kremlin scheme

According to ISW, on March 20, the governor of Russia’s Ryazan region signed a decree requiring medium and large enterprises to independently select employees to sign contracts with the defense ministry of the aggressor state.

"The decree requires businesses with between 150 and 500 employees to select two to five employees to sign contracts, depending on the size of the business," the document states.

It is noted that the decree on such "mobilization" will remain in effect at least until September 20, 2026.

Reason — manpower shortage

The aggressor state is taking such steps due to a critical manpower situation — in January this year, recruitment levels fell below casualty rates for the first time since the start of the full-scale war.

"The March 20 decree is a continuation of Russian covert mobilization efforts that aim to avoid conducting another involuntary call-up of Russian men while continuing to generate manpower for the frontlines in Ukraine," ISW emphasized.

Analysts also believe that this format of mobilization is not accidental. In particular, the Kremlin is deliberately creating conditions to shift responsibility for forced conscription onto business leaders and regional authorities.

"Forcibly mobilized employees are likely to direct their ire at the businesses that selected them or the governor who issued the decree, though the Kremlin is ultimately responsible for the Russian forces’ unsustainable casualty rate in Ukraine that is necessitating this new covert mobilization effort," the report states.

Russia plans to deploy all mobilized personnel currently stationed in temporarily occupied Crimea to combat operations. According to available information, starting April 1, the Russian army intends to send these troops to the front.

Former Russian president and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev recently claimed that there is "no need" for a new wave of mobilization in Russia.