Russia may deploy all mobilized troops from Crimea by April, says ISW

Russia prepares to mobilize troops from Crimea

Analysts drew attention to a statement by the spokesperson of Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces, Vladyslav Voloshyn, who reported that Russia plans to involve all mobilized personnel currently in Crimea in combat operations.

According to him, this personnel is intended to replace the wounded and reinforce the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, whose units are currently operating in the Kursk direction and within the operational-tactical group Crimea.

The ISW notes that the Russian command may resort to this step due to significant losses on the front and difficulties in recruiting new volunteers.

Reorganization and redeployment of Russian forces

In addition, according to Voloshyn, Russia plans to reorganize the 810th Marine Brigade into a division. It could become the tenth new maneuver division created by Russia since the start of the full-scale war.

Analysts recalled that the Russian command has previously carried out similar reforms.

In particular, the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet was reorganized into the 55th Division, and the 336th Brigade of the Baltic Fleet into the 120th Marine Division.

At the same time, counterattacks by Ukraine's Defense Forces in the south continue to influence the situation on the front, complicating Russian operations ahead of the spring-summer campaign.

As Voloshyn reported, Russian command is already transferring units of the 55th and 120th Marine Divisions to the area of responsibility of the 29th Combined Arms Army — in particular to the Oleksandrivka area and the northern Huliaipole direction.

The spokesperson noted that these forces may take part in combat operations starting from April 2026.

ISW adds that Russian forces are already forced to deploy troops from their operational reserve, even just to sustain current combat operations. Russians are also likely redeploying so-called elite airborne and marine units from the Donetsk region closer to the southern frontline since early March 2026.

Impact of Ukrainian counterattacks

Thus, according to analysts, the dual efforts of Ukrainian forces to stop and push back Russian advances in southern Ukraine are also affecting other sections of the front.

Because of this, Russian forces are forced to choose between countering Ukrainian counterattacks and reallocating manpower and resources for their own offensive operations in other areas of the front.

“Russia's redeployments to southern Ukraine in response to Ukrainian counterattacks are likely disrupting the Russian military command's plans for the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Fortress Belt," the report states.

Previously, Russian forces have demonstrated an inability to conduct offensive operations simultaneously across multiple front sectors. It is unlikely they will be able to make significant efforts to advance in the Donbas Fortress Belt area while also trying to counter Ukraine's recent successes in the Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka directions, ISW notes.

According to reports, Russian forces likely launched a spring-summer offensive against Ukraine's Fortress Belt in the Donetsk region.

The main pressure is concentrated in the Lyman direction, which opens the way to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.